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Friday, July 19, 2013

How Well Did I Do On My 2013 Emmy Predictions?

Last Thursday, the 2013 Primetime Emmy nominations were announced. Of course the Emmys got a bunch of things right, they also got a whole lot of things wrong. Just like me. Even though awards and stupid and meaningless, I love to argue about them until I'm blue in the face. Over the past month or so, I've been predicting who I think will get a nomination, as well as who I think deserved a nomination. This recap post is more about the former and less about the latter. Although it's still fun to complain about the latter.


- How Did I Do?: 6 out of 6

I'm not going to take too much credit for predicting all 6, as they were pretty obvious choices

- My "Obvious Snub": Boardwalk Empire

I will jump up and down about Season 3 of Boardwalk Empire. It was so good and so much better than Homeland or Downton Abbey (who both received nominations), but c'est la vie.


- How Did I Do?: 5 out of 6

- What Did I Guess Wrong: Choosing Arrested Development over Louie

Not only do the Emmy's LOVE Louie C.K. and his show "Louie" considering how many acting, directing, and writing nominations he consistently gets (as well as the show itself), but this Netflix version of Arrested Development was not very good, and I believe the Emmy voters took notice of that.

- My "Obvious Snub": New Girl

While I didn't realistically expect a nomination from this show (because it didn't receive one last year), I can't believe the dump the Emmy voters took on the funniest show over the past 12 months (as we'll see as this post goes on)


- How Did I Do?: 4 out of 6

- What Did I Guess Wrong: Choosing Matthew Rhys (The Americans) and Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire) over Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey) and Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom)

Predicting Bonneville over Rhys was just based upon my heart and how much I loved Rhys' performance. I also strongly dislike Downton Abbey (Yes, I have watched the show, so I am basing my opinion on something), but predicting Jeff Daniels over Steve Buscemi was just a downright shocker. I had Buscemi as one of my stone, cold locks. I knew B.E. was going to get screwed over as an Emmy series, but the extent of this Boardwalk Empire is hate beyond belief. 

- My "Obvious Snub": Timothy Olyphant (Justified)

The Emmy's hate FX and has never given Olyphant love before, so I didn't expect this one to realistically come to fruition. 


- How Did I Do?: 4 out of 6

- What Did I Guess Wrong: Choosing Jon Cryer (Two And A Half Men) and Matthew Perry (Go On) over Jason Bateman (Arrested Development) and Matt Le Blanc (Episodes)

I fully admitted my Matthew Perry prediction was a HUGE stab in the dark, but no nomination for the 2012 winner of this category (Cryer)  is a really big surprise. It's not like Cryer actually deserved to get nominated again (nor win last year), but not nominating an eligible winner from the year before is a shock to the system.

Now Bateman and Le Blanc are former nominees for their work on their respected shows, so their nominations are not THAT big of a deal... but they kind of are. Especially Bateman he's Arrested Development's only acting nomination (SPOILER ALERT for the rest of this post!). 

- My "Obvious Snub": NBC

If you go back and read my article, my first choice was Jake Johnson from New Girl, but a week ago his nomination seemed like a lock. I knew Joel McHale and the eligible duo from Parks and Rec wouldn't get a nomination, and that was wishful thinking on my part, but Johnson deserves to be here.


- How Did I Do?: 4 nominees correct

- What Did I Guess Wrong: First of all, I guessed wrong that there would only be six nominees- there were seven. Next, I incorrectly guessed that Julianna Marguiles (The Good Wife) and Keri Russell (The Americans) would receive a nomination, and that no one from Downton Abbey would receive one.

My personal dislike of Downton Abbey very obviously clouded my rational judgment. Hell would freeze over while pigs flew above before Emmy voters snubbed Downton Abbey- and I fully copped to it at the time. 

However, this was one crazy category in terms of my predictive skills. Marguiles was a former winner, and one of the pillars of this category. She was the Jon Hamm/Bryan Cranston equivalent for females (While she's won more Emmys than Hamm and less than Cranston, her presence in this category seemed as good of a lock as any) and I felt like no matter what she did on the CBS show, she would earn a nomination. 

On the flip side, predicting Connie Britton and Vera Farmiga were pretty big risks on my part. The Emmys have fallen for Britton like a schoolboy crush, so I guess my limb didn't extend TOO far, but Farmiga for Bates Motel seemed like a close-but-no-cigar situation. While I've only seen the A&E pilot, I am fully aware of Farmiga's acting chops and have no doubt that she's really good on the show.

Lastly, Kerry Washington (Scandal) shouldn't come as THAT big of a surprise. The show is wildly popular now and Emmy voters love nothing more than a warm seat on the bandwagon.

- My "Obvious Snub": Robin Wright (House of Cards)

I thought there was no way Wright was going to earn a nomination, and it was going to be the Kevin Spacey show (pun intended) from here on out. But Wright was outstanding as the icy and conniving wife to Congressman Frank Underwood. While her character was unlikable as shit, that doesn't mean we should have been taking it out on Wright herself. She was getting NO buzz before the nominations, but that was an insult. Not only is she a pretty darn big movie star (which the Emmys voters LOVE), but she was on a highly touted rookie show (Emmys love new, good shows) AND she was really good. That trifecta should have meant more buzz. Oh well. Who needs buzz when you have an ACTUAL nomination! Suck it lady from Oprhan Black who the internet tells me is incredible! 


- How Did I Do?: 5 out of 6 (and correctly predicting only 6 nominees this year, sans Melissa McCarthy for Mike and Molly)

- What Did I Guess Wrong: Choosing Zooey Deschanel (New Girl) over Laura Dern (Enlightened)

Is Deschanel is a movie star? Check. Is Deschanel is a past nominee in this category? Check. Is Deschanel on a very popular T.V. show? Check. Is Deschanel is really, really good on said popular show? Check. 

There was no reason Zooey Deschanel didn't deserve a nomination or reason to think she wouldn't get one, but Emmys were surprisingly not as predictable as they were in seasons past. While I have not been watching Enlightened, the buzz on the show is very strong and Dern is supposedly very good on it. But Emmy voters don't care about quality! Dern has never been nominated in this category before, so it's surprisingly (based on past Emmy trends) to see her first nomination come for her final season. 


- How Did I Do?: 4 out of 6

- What Did I Guess Wrong: Choosing Corey Stoll (House of Cards) over Bobby Cannavale (Boardwalk Empire) and choosing the wrong Downton Abbey actor.

Considering all of the love House of Cards received on Emmy nomination day, and all of the hate Boardwalk Empire received, this is a pretty wonky category. There is a large minority who either didn't like House of Cards or thought it was just OK, but it didn't live up to the hype. Yet no matter what camp you fell into, the consensus was that Corey Stoll was great, easily the best part of the show, and seemed just shy of a solid lock to get a nomination.

On the flip side, you have Cannavale as the amazing villain during Season 3 of Boardwalk Empire. I don't think I read a single Emmy review (besides my own or course) that brought up Cannavale's name and Empire was a show no one was really talking about. Yet, at the end of the day, Gyp Rosetti was an amazing, twisted character, and Cannavale is a really good character actor. It's nice that he received some love.

- My "Obvious Snub": Noah Emmerich (The Americans)

While officially I did pick Emmerich (and he is now an actual snub), here is the first line from this section in my prediction piece: 

Truthfully, Bobby Cannavale was an amazing villain on Boardwalk Empire last year and deserves WAY more praise and buzz than he's getting, but the Emmys never really seemed THAT into the Jersey drama. I think the Emmys really, really like The Americans (because the critics seem to)...

Therefore, I'm half claiming Cannavale was my "Obvious Snub:"!

Anyways, it's been a consistent trend now, bordering on insulting, that the Emmys hate FX dramas. Justified, Sons of Anarchy, and even Terriers deserve(d) Emmy praise, but will never get it. I guess it was dumb to think the Emmys would throw The Americans SOME sort of (well-deserved) bone in the acting categories.


- My Predictions

- How Did I Do?: 3 out of 6

- What Did I Guess Wrong: Choosing Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family), Max Greenfield (New Girl), and Will Arnett (Arrested Development) over Tony Hale (Veep), Adam Driver (Girls), and Bill Hader (SNL).

I can't believe Eric Stonestreet (Cam from Modern Family) wasn't nominated this year. He is a three time nominee and a two time winner. Not only is this ANOTHER example of a former winner (and a 2012 winner) not earning a nomination, but this is Modern Freaking Family. The Emmy Golden God. This is a show where if you're over the age of 18 and you don't act like you're better than anyone else (Here's looking at you 2010 Ed O'Neill who boldly and brashly decided to put himself in the Best LEAD category, as opposed to the Best Supporting one), you're guaranteed a nomination- and practically guaranteed a win. I firmly believe that once you win an acting Emmy for Modern Family you should automatically be ineligible so the love can get shared around, but the fact that the Emmys actually did something about this is astonishing.

I did correctly guess that a former nominee from 2012 would drop out of the field for an Arrested Development alum to step in; however, only that premise was correct. First, the A.D. alum it turns out was neither Arnett nor Jeffrey Tambor, but Tony Hale. And from Veep. And while I have heard great things about Season 2 of Veep, there's no doubt in my mind that Hale earned his nomination for his work as Buster Bluth, considering the Buster-centric episode of Arrested Development was easily the funniest thing about the Netflix comedy, as opposed to his work on the HBO Comedy.

I also incorrectly guessed that Bill Hader would leave, and that Max Greenfield stay in. Go back and read my "What I'm Probably Wrong About" section. I clearly hated leaving Hader off of my list, but I predicted a huge morning for New Girl come nomination time. I was wrong.

- My "Obvious Snub": Nolan Gould (Modern Family)

In a year where Eric Stonestreet wasn't nominated, there was no Earthly way Nolan Gould, a talented and deserving actor on, what the Emmys believe, is the funniest show on television, would be nominated. The true snub now though is Greenfield.


- My Predictions

- How Did I Do?: 4 out of 6

- What Did I Guess Wrong: Choosing Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife) and Kelly Macdonald (Boardwalk Empire) over Monica Baccarin (Homeland) and Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)

My Kelly Macdonald prediction was wishful thinking. Not only was the Boardwalk Empire demise inevitable, but she wasn't nominated last year, and more often than not, once you're out, YOU'RE OUT! Panjabi on the other hand was a former winner on a show the Emmys love. But from what I heard, her storyline from last year was so atrocious, the show runners of The Good Wife actually altered the show mid season, because the fans hared it so much. I guess based off of that, it makes sense Panjabi didn't earn a nomination. But with this and Marguiles, the Emmys gave The Good Wife a good punch to the groin.

The Emmys are either rectifying their mistake of leaving out Homeland last year (see the Patinkin nomination above), or they are setting themselves up for a massive, massive Homeland sweep. With Baccarin's nomination, Homeland now has a nominee in Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Outstanding Drama Series.

Lastly, I'm just glad I picked a category with not only the correct number of Downton Abbey actresses (one), but that I choose the correct one (2012 winner Dame Maggie Smith).

- My "Obvious Snub": Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones)

Every Emmy voters watches GoT. Hell, everybody in America watches it. And from watching Season 3, it is obvious that the Khalessi story line was one of (number one in my mind) the best story lines. Her freaking dragon destroyed an entire city, and that was only half way through the season! Going into the nominations, it seemed that only Peter Dinklage could grab an acting nod in game of Thrones. It's nice to see Clarke finally get one as well.


- My Predictions

- How Did I Do?: 4 nominees correct

- What Did I Guess Wrong: Another female category with seven nominees as opposed to six. We had last year's Best Lead Actress (Comedy) garner 7 nominations, and this year we not only have this category come complete with 7 nods, but also Best Lead Actress (Drama). I think for next year I'll start predicting 7 nominations in the female categories. Not only is that more likely to happen, but it increases the odds of me being correct when there only happens to be 6 actual nominations.

While I correctly predicted Vergara, Bowden, Weaver, and Bialik (the best name for a law firm ever!), I whiffed on Jane Lynch (Glee), Anna Chlumsky (Veep), and Jane Krakowski (30 Rock), choosing instead Jessica Walter (Arrested Development), and Sarah Hyland (Modern Family).

Hyland was over 18 during last season of Modern Family (at least her character was), so I boldly (and stupidly) choose her to get a nomination. I also chose Walter because she was a former nominee and I (stupidly) thought Emmy voters would disagree with me in disliking Arrested Development.

Lynch and Krakowski are former nominees that were not nominated in 2012 which makes their nomination in 2013 both surprising and expected. In the past, if you lost your nomination in a year in which you were eligible, then you were never getting that nomination back. The Krakowski nomination makes sense because 30 Rock just ended, and she's really good at the end. The Lynch nomination makes absolutely no sense, because not only is Glee terrible (I assume, I stopped watching it because it was so terrible, and that was before the entire cast left high school), but her character grew old and tiresome.

The Chlumsky nomination is surprising, only in the fact that an actress who deserved to be there actually WAS there.

- My "Obvious Snub": Jenna Fischer (The Office)

I knew she was a long shot, but considering the Emmys watched The Office during its prime (or at least they claimed they did because they kept nominating it for Outstanding Comedy Series), the nominations are selected based upon a single episode and not an entire season, and I'm sure Fischer submitted the Series Finale as her submission episode, I am a LITTLE BIT shocked that Fischer didn't get a nomination when 7 others did. But only a little.

Who do you think were the winners and losers of the 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations? Let us know on our Facebook page!

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