My Final Predictions for the 2016 Academy Award Winners

THE MAJOR EIGHT

BEST PICTURE: The Revenant
BEST DIRECTOR: Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)
BEST ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
BEST ACTRESS: Brie Larson (Room)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Charles Randolph & Adam McKay (The Big Short)

BEST "OTHER FILM"

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE: Inside Out
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Amy
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Son of Saul

What Does The 2015 Academy Awards Say About Future Oscar Predictions

BEST PICTURE AND BEST DIRECTOR

In 2013 and 2014, the winner of Best Director and the winner of Best Picture came from different films. In 2013, Life of Pi's director Ang Lee won Best Director defeating the hypothetical nominee Ben Affleck. We'll never know if Ben Affleck had received an Oscar nomination if Argo still would have won Best Picture, but since the Director's Guild of America Awards gave Affleck a nomination (and eventual win), there was clearly strong support for the film and the director before and after the Oscar snub.

In 2014, 12 Years A Slave won Best Picture yet its director Steve McQueen lost to the eventual winner- Gravity's Alfonso Cuaron. Neither win was a surprise as both 12 Years A Slave and Cuaron were each the favorite to win their respected categories before the 2014 Oscars.

In 2015, I think we were conditioned to have some sort of split with many predicting Boyhood's Richard Linklater to win Best Director and Birdman winning Best Picture. I think that was a condition of the past two years and not seeing the broader picture. Almost always, the Best Picture and Best Director come from the same picture and that held true for the 2015 Academy Awards.

Further, do not doubt the DGA! Not only are they an incredible predictor of who will eventually go on to win Best Director, but they also are a great predictor of Best Picture as well. Birdman was both the DGA and the Producer's Guild of America (PGA) Award winner, which means it was going to win their respected Oscar statutes.

BEST SCREENPLAY

A lot of people expected The Grand Budapest Hotel and Wes Anderson to win the Best Original Screenplay Academy Award; however, I correctly predicted Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Birdman to win. Hotel had won the BAFTA (a terrible predictor) as well as the Writer's Guild of America Awards (a great predictor); however, Birdman was not nominated for a WGA Award. This isn't terribly surprising, as many people (seemingly) can write a great script without being a member of the Writer's Guild.

Again, the biggest predictor of a screenplay award is if the film wins Best Picture, which means one should look heavily at the DGAs. 2015, probably more than any other year, shows us that the film that wins Best Picture will have a trickle down effect for other categories.

Still, the WGA is an incredibly reliable predictor of a Best Screenplay Oscar win. Graham Moore and The Imitation Game won the WGA for Best Adapted Screenplay and it also went on to win the Academy Award. I don't fault anyone predicting the WGA winner for Best Original Screenplay, Wes Anderson, would go on to the wins the Oscar, but the use of common sense (Anderson not going against Inarritu at the WGAs) in conjunction with other factors (Birdman's DGA and PGA win) to predict correctly.

Also, for the past four years, the winner of Best Original Screenplay was for a writer who also directed his picture. That would have held true for Wes Anderson, but it also is still true for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu.

My Final Predictions for the 2015 Academy Award Winners

THE MAJOR EIGHT

BEST PICTURE: Birdman
BEST DIRECTOR: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)
BEST ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
BEST ACTRESS: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, et al (Birdman)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Graham Moore (The Imitation Game)

BEST "OTHER FILM"

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE: How To Train Your Dragon 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Citizenfour
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Ida

Too Early 2014 Primetime Emmy Nomination Predictions

The news for which shows will throw their hat into which ring for the 2014 Primetime Emmys seems to be racking up these days. Recently, HBO stated that True Detective will enter into the Drama categories as opposed to the Miniseries categories (if American Horror Story is any precedent, the show could have done that and swept them all no problem). This news is coming on the heels that Netflix will throw Orange Is The New Black into the comedy specter after it's failed attempts in other award shows, like the Golden Globes, to be a drama. Lastly, Showtime's Shameless has decided that it's 4th season will be a comedy after 3 failed attempts at earning drama nominations from the Emmys. 

With all of this news in mind, here are my predictions for who and what will earn a nomination at the 2014 Emmy Awards. Even though many eligible shows like Mad Men and Game of Thrones haven't even aired yet, I'm still pretty confident in my selections.

2014 Mega MLB Prediction Post

DIVISION STANDINGS

AL EAST

1) New York Yankees

2) Tampa Bay Rays*

3) Boston Red Sox*

4) Baltimore Orioles

5) Toronto Blue Jays

AL CENTRAL

1) Detroit Tigers

2) Kansas City Royals

3) Chicago White Sox

4) Minnesota Twins

5) Cleveland Indians

AL WEST

1) Los Angeles Angels

2) Texas Rangers

3) Oakland A's

4) Seattle Mariners

5) Houston Texans

NL EAST

1) Washington Nationals

2) Atlanta Braves*

3) New York Mets

4) Philadelphia Phillies

5) Miami Marlins

NL CENTRAL

1) St. Louis Cardinals

2) Cincinnati Reds*

3) Pittsburgh Pirates

4) Milwaukee Brewers

5) Chicago Cubs

NL WEST

1) Arizona Diamondbacks

2) San Francisco Giants

3) Los Angeles Dodgers

4) San Diego Padres

5) Colorado Rockies

* Denotes Wild Card Birth

Final Predictions For The 2014 Academy Awards

Best Picture: 12 Years A Slave

Click here to check out my thoughts on the Best Picture nominees

Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Click here to check out my thoughts on the Best Director nominees

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Click here to check out my thoughts on the Best Actor nominees

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Click here to check out my thoughts on the Best Actress nominees

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Click here to check out my thoughts on the Best Supporting Actor nominees

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Click here to check out my thoughts on the Best Supporting Actress nominees

Predictions for the 2014 Academy Award Nominations

BEST PICTURE
- 12 Years A Slave
- American Hustle
- Captain Phillips
- Dallas Buyers Club
- Gravity
- Her
- Inside Llewyn Davis
- Nebraska
- Saving Mr. Banks
- The Wolf of Wall Street

SUPER, DUPER LOCKS: 12 Years A Slave, American Hustle, & Gravity

LOCKS: Captain Phillips, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, & The Wolf of Wall Street

STRONG EDUCATED GUESSES: Saving Mr. Banks, Dallas Buyers Club

I think Saving Ms. Banks gets a nomination just because a large portion of the Academy are old fuddy-duddies who love to reminisce about the "Good Ol' Times" of Hollywood, and Saving Mr. Banks fits right into their wheelhouse. As for Dallas Buyers Club, even though it did not get a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, it did get a PGA and SAG nomination for Best Film- and those factions mean a helluva lot more than the Hollywood Foreign Press of the Golden Globes. It has a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and the likely Best Actor win for Matthew McConaughey doesn't hurt either.

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Inside Llewyn Davis

On one hand, Inside Llweyn Davis earned a Golden Globe nomination and was one of AFI's top ten best films of the year. On the other, neither the SAG (not that surprising) nor the PGA (super surprising) awarded it with a nomination. However, I think it gets nominated just because it's a Coen Brother's flick. Three out of their past four films (True Grit, A Serious Man, & No Country For Old Men) have all gotten nominated, and I think the super boring and dull Inside Llewyn Davis does the same.

DARK HORSE: Philomena

2013 NFL Wrap Up Special and Post Season Predictions

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

NFC

WILD CARD ROUND

(5) San Francisco 49ers def. (4) Green Bay Packers
(3) Philadelphia Eagles def. (6) New Orleans Saints

DIVISIONAL ROUND

(1) Seattle Seahawks def. (5) San Francisco 49ers
(2) Carolina Panthers def. (3) Philadelphia Eagles

CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

(1) Seattle Seahawks def. (2) Carolina Panthers

AFC

WILD CARD ROUND

(3) Cincinnati Bengals def. (6) San Diego Chargers
(5) Kansas City Chiefs def. (4) Indianapolis Colts

DIVISIONAL ROUND

(3) Cincinnati Bengals def. (2) New England Patriots
(1) Denver Broncos def. (5) Kansas City Chiefs

CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

(3) Cincinnati Bengals def. (1) Denver Broncos

SUPER BOWL

Cincinnati Bengals def. Seattle Seahawks

Why did I stupidly choose the Cincinnati Bengals to win it all? Click here to find out why!

Why The Cincinnati Bengals Will Win The 2014 Superbowl

Here are the Superbowl winning quarterback's between 2004 and 2013 as well as their age:

2004: Tom Brady (26)

2005: Tom Brady (27)

2006: Ben Roethlisberger (23)

2007: Peyton Manning (30)

2008: Eli Manning (27)

2009: Ben Roethlisberger (26)

2010: Drew Brees (30)

2011: Aaron Rodgers (27)
2012: Eli Manning (31)
2013: Joe Flacco (28)

Notice a trend? My confirmation bias does. QBs that win the Superbowl tend to be within the age of 26-30. Ben Roethlisberger was the youngest QB ever to win a Superbowl at the age of 23. While of course it's certainly possible for younger QBs to win it all, that's the outlier and not the norm. Eli Manning was a month into 31st year alive when he won the Superbowl in 2012.

I think this mainly means that QB's who are older in age do NOT win Superbowls. That's not to say they can't, it's just to say that they don't, at least not in recent years.

Proven Players Off Of A Bad Year: 2013 NFL Edition

While Matthew Berry helped popularize this concept last year during 2012's NFL pre-season, that is a concept that all experienced fantasy players are fully aware of. For the most part, players are who they are. Every once in a while, that player will have a bad or down year, but that shouldn't deter us from the large sample size they gave before us. Take Ryan Braun for example.

For the first year ever in fantasy baseball, I drafted Ryan Braun. This was a guy who has been a consistent superstar the past few years, so even if he didn't perform like the #1 player in fantasy, I knew he'd still be good. Suspension notwithstanding, he was terrible. Yet, I will still gladly draft Braun next year. Because no matter how much he hurt me this year, and no matter how poorly he performed in 2013, his career as a whole tells me that he'll not only rebound in 2014 and play like the stud that he is, but I can also get him for a discounted price.

That's how you win your draft, by finding value no matter at what spot you draft. Players like Stevan Ridley and Alfred Morris last year in fantasy football were amazing values that helped you win your fantasy league. However, based about what the Patriots and Redskins did in 2011, using multiple backs to frustrate you week to week, dropped each player's value significantly.

This Recency Effect is what creates the value. We too often put too much weight on what the player did the year before, as opposed to looking at their career as a whole. Therefore if a player comes off a bad year, that player automatically drops in ranking. But if you looked at said player's career as a whole, and not just what they did last year, then you can find great value to help you win fantasy leagues.

Here is my list of potential proven players coming off of a bad year (as well as players who's value are depressed based upon Recency Bias and not career numbers)

How Well Did I Do On My 2013 Emmy Predictions?

Last Thursday, the 2013 Primetime Emmy nominations were announced. Of course the Emmys got a bunch of things right, they also got a whole lot of things wrong. Just like me. Even though awards and stupid and meaningless, I love to argue about them until I'm blue in the face. Over the past month or so, I've been predicting who I think will get a nomination, as well as who I think deserved a nomination. This recap post is more about the former and less about the latter. Although it's still fun to complain about the latter.

2013's Mega MLB Prediction Post

DIVISION STANDINGS

AL EAST

1) Toronto Blue Jays

2) New York Yankees *

3) Tampa Bay Rays**

4) Boston Red Sox

5) Baltimore Orioles

AL WEST

How Did My Academy Award Predictions Turn Out?

Overall: 17 / 24 (71%)

You can see all of my predictions for the 85th Academy Awards here

BEST CALL: Predicting Ang Lee (Life of Pi) would win Best Director

WORST CALL: Choosing Tommy Lee Jones over Christoph Waltz for Best Supporting Actor
(Also, I should have chosen "Curfew" over "Buzkashi Boys" for Best Live Action Short. If you read as much Oscar blogs and articles as I have it was obvious)

BIG SIX CATEGORIES: 5/6
(Best Film, Best Director, the 4 acting categories)

Looking Back On My Predictions For The 2013 Oscar Nominations

BEST PICTURE

How Did I Do?: 8/9

BEST CALL: Beasts of the Southern Wild

WORST CALL: Not selecting Amour

NOTES: A pretty good list from me if I do say so myself and I'm also going to pay myself on the back for saying 9 films would get selected. If I had to extend my list to 10 I would have selected Amour as the 10th but I am shocked The Master didn't get a nomination and a foreign language film did.
_____

What I Got Right: Argo, Beasts Of The Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life Of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

What I Should Have Done: Selected Amour instead of The Master

BEST DIRECTOR

How Did I Do?: 2/5

BEST CALL: Ang Lee (Life Of Pi)

WORST CALL: Every one of my other selections

NOTES: What a complete at utter joke these five nominees are. Ben Affleck (Argo) and Katheryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) absolutely needed to be there. I'm actually fine with no Tarantino and I really enjoyed Silver Linings Playbook so I'm not super upset to see David O. Russell there but still, he probably shouldn't be nominated considering how super deep 2012 is.

I think Affleck needs to be there because Argo was incredible (and because Affleck did the best directing out of everyone in 2012) and based on what I've heard about Zero Dark Thirty so does Bigelow. Despite my opinion on Lincoln of course Spielberg was going to get nominated and Life Of Pi was too brilliant to leave Ang Lee off of the list. That's four (Affleck, Bigelow, Lee, Spielberg) selections right there with maybe Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts), or Tarantino fighting for the fifth. That would have been both fair and just. (Although personally having Beasts get no nominations is probably fair and just. Have you seen it? It's boring as all hell).
_____

What I Got Right: Ang Lee (Life Of Pi), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts Of The Southern Wild), and David O. Russell over Ben Affleck (Argo), Katheryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), and Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

BEST ACTOR

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: Saying BOTH Bradley Cooper (SLP) and Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) would get nominated since it seemed like these two were fighting against each other for the "fifth spot"

WORST CALL: Saying Denzel Washington (Flight) would not get a nomination

NOTES: There were six obvious contenders for only five slots. Daniel Day-Lewis was a mortal lock and I just knew that both Bradley Cooper and Joaquin Phoenix would get a nomination because they were both incredible. That left Hugh Jackman (Les Mis), John Hawkes (The Sessions), and Washington fighting for two spots. It turns out that Hawkes was the odd man out and not Washington. In my defense though, I DID SAY that I was guaranteed to be wrong about Denzel missing out.
_____

What I Got Right: Bradley Cooper (SLP), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Mis), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Denzel Washington (Flight) over John Hawkes (The Sessions)

BEST ACTRESS

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: Qu'venzhane Wallis (Beasts Of The Southern Wild)

WORST CALL: Not going through one of my last second edit of deleting Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) and adding Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

NOTES: I am so proud of myself for this one. The only locks were Jennifer Lawrence (SLP) and Jessica Chastain (ZDT) so the fact that I got four out of five correct in what I said was the category I felt the weakest about feels pretty good to me.
_____

What I Got Right: Jessica Chastain (ZDT), Jennifer Lawrence (SLP), Qu'venzhane Wallis (Beasts), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) over Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: The four that I predicted would get a nomination and did get a nomination took no big leaps of faith on my part so no real "best call" here

WORST CALL: Claiming that all five of my selections would be 100% correct and "stone cold locks"

NOTES: God does the Academy hate Leo. I know he has three nominations and two are for Best Lead Actor but listen to the list of films Leonardo DiCaprio has been in in which he DID NOT receive a nomination: Django Unchained, Inception, The Departed, Titanic, Catch Me If You Can, and Gangs of New York. I bet DiCaprio wished The Great Gatsby was a 2012 film not, huh? Although with the Academy's hatred of him, it might not matter and he'll probably get snubbed again at next year's Oscars.
_____

What I Got Right: Alan Arkin (Argo), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Robert De Niro (SLP), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Christoph Waltz (Django) over Leonardo DiCaprio (Django)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: Amy Adams (The Master). She was no lock to getting a nomination considering her SAG snub, but I also really didn't go out on this one either.

WORST CALL: Thinking Jacki Weaver only had a 10% chance of getting nominated.

NOTES: Even though Weaver neither received a SAG nomination nor a Golden Globe nomination and even though Nicole Kidman received both, Weaver earned the "last spot" over Kidman.
_____

What I Got Right: Adam Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Mis), Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Jacki Weaver (SLP) over Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: Michael Haneke (Amour)

WORST CALL: Thinking the Academy actually liked, or at least respected, The Master

NOTES: Out of the four selections I got correct, only two (Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty) earned WGA nominations. However, Quentin Tarantino (Django) is not in the WGA so of course he was not going to receive a nomination (although weirdly that hasn't stopped the WGA from nominating him in the past) and Haneke wasn't eligible because the "A" in "WGA" stands for "America" and Haneke is not from America. Even though John Gatnis did earn a WGA nominations, I really did not think that it would translate over into an Oscar nod. However, it did. It's a shame the same didn't hold true for Rian Johnson (Looper).
_____

What I Got Right: Amour (Michael Haneke), Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino), Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola), Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Flight (John Gatnis) over The Master (P.T. Anderson)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

How Did I Do?: 5/5

BEST CALL: Picking all five nominations perfectly

WORST CALL: NONE MOTHA FUCKAS!

NOTES: The only other contender for this category was Stephen Chbosky for The Perks Of Being A Wallflower because it earned a WGA nomination. However, because Benh Zeitlin is not in the WGA (in fact, no one associated with Beasts Of The Southern Wild is in ANY guild) he wasn't going to be nominated for a WGA. However, I knew Zeitlin would earn Chbosky's place come Oscar time.
_____

What I Got Right: Argo (Chris Terrio), Beasts Of The Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin), Life Of Pi (David Magee), Lincoln (Tony Kushner), Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell

What I Should Have Done: N/A

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Final 2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions

BEST PICTURE

- Argo
- Beasts Of The Southern Wild
- Django Unchained
- Les Miserables
- Life Of Pi
- Lincoln
- The Master
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Beasts Of The Southern Wild getting a nomination

BEST DIRECTOR

- Ben Affleck (Argo)
- Katheryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Ang Lee (Life Of Pi)
- Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
- Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) not getting nominated. Probably over Ang Lee

BEST ACTOR

- Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
- John Hawkes (The Sessions)
- Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
- Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
- Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

WHAT I'M DEFINITELY WRONG ABOUT: Denzel Washington (Flight) not getting a nomination. He'll probably get it over Phoenix.

BEST ACTRESS

- Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Marion Cotilliard (Rust and Bone)
- Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Qu'venzhane Wallis (Beasts Of The Southern Wild)
- Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: In a weak year (in an always weak category) this is the category I'm the most unsure about. I could see Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), and Rachel Weisz (Deep Blue Sea) each getting nominated. Only Chastain and Lawrence are locks.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

- Alan Arkin (Argo)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
- Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Nothing. All five of these are stone cold locks.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

- Amy Adams (The Master)
- Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
- Helent Hunt (The Sessions)
- Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
- Sally Field (Lincoln)

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Maggie Smith not getting a nomination. Probably for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Also, for some reason Amy Adams' nomination is in jeopardy.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

- Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
- Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)
- Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Michael Haneke (Amour)
- Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

WHAT I'M MAYBE WRONG ABOUT: Possibly John Gatins for Flight but overall I think this is a good list

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

- Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
- David Magee (Life Of Pi)
- David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Chris Terrio (Argo)
- Benh Zeitlin (Beasts Of The Southern Wild)

WHAT I'M MAYBE WRONG ABOUT: It's hard to get a gauge on Beasts Of The Southern Wild considering it wasn't eligible for any of the guilds (WGA, SAG, DGA, and PGA) so it hasn't gotten nominated for anything beforehand. It's possible Stephen Chbosky (The Perks Of Being A Wallflower) gets nominated considering it has some Oscar buzz and it did get a WGA nod, but I'm still putting blind faith in Beasts (whether or not I think it deserves to be there is another story)
___________________

NOTE: This is a list of who I think WILL get a nomination and not about who I think DESERVES to get a nomination. That post will come later.
___________________

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2012 NFL Wrap Up Special and Post Season Predictions

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

NFC

Wild Card Round

(5) Seattle Seahawks def. (4) Washington Redskins
(3) Green Bay Packers def. (6) Minnesota Vikings

Divisional Round

(5) Seattle Seahawks def. (1) Atlanta Falcons
(2) San Francisco 49ers def. (3) Green Bay Packers

Championship Round

(2) San Francisco 49ers def. (5) Seattle Seahawks

AFC

Wild Card Round

(4) Baltimore Ravens def. (5) Indianapolis Colts
(3) Houston Texans def. (6) Cincinnati Bengals

Divisional Round

(1) Denver Broncos def. (4) Baltimore Ravens
(3) Houston Texans def. (2) New England Patriots

Championship Round

(3) Houston Texans def. (1) Denver Broncos

SUPER BOWL

Houston Texans def. San Francisco 49ers

At the very beginning of the season I predicted the Texans to come out of the AFC and the Bears to come out of the NFC (which at the time was a very homer pick. I fully cop to it). I also had the Texans winning it all and I'm not going to change my mind now and I am sticking to my original prediction. If I didn't make the preseason prediction I'd have the Patriots defeat the Texans in the Divisional Round and the Broncos during the Championship game and have the 49ers defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

END OF SEASON AWARDS

Most Valuable Player

- If I had an MVP vote, I'd vote for: Adrian Peterson (MIN)
- The true MVP of the 2012 season: Peyton Manning (DEN)

Rookie Of The Year

- Offensive: Robert Griffin III (WAS)
- Defensive: Luke Kuechly (CAR)

Sophomore Of The Year

- Offensive: A.J. Green (CIN)
- Defensive: J.J. Watt (HOU)

Comeback Player Of The Year

- Peyton Manning (DEN)

Defensive Player Of The Year

- J.J. Watt (HOU)

Offensive Player Of The Year

- Adrian Peterson (MIN)

Coach of the Year

- Jim Harbaugh (SF)

Offensive Coordinator of the Year

- Kyle Shanahan (WAS)

Defensive Coordinator of the Year

- Wade Phillips (HOU)

BEST ______ IN THE PLAYOFFS

QUARTERBACKS

1) Peyton Manning (DEN)
2) Tom Brady (NE)
3) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
4) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
5) Matt Schaub (HOU)
6) Russell Wilson (SEA)
7) Colin Kaepernick (SF)
8) Matt Ryan (ATL)
9) Andrew Luck (IND)
10) Andy Dalton (CIN)
11) Joe Flacco (BAL)
12) Christian Ponder (MIN)

RUNNING BACKS

1) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2) Marshawn Lynch (SEA)
3) Ray Rice (BAL)
4) Frank Gore (SF)
5) Alfred Morris (WAS)
6) Arian Foster (HOU)
7) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)
8) Stevan Ridley (NE)
9) Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
10) Ben Tate (HOU)
11) Vick Ballard (IND)
12) Michael Turner (ATL)

WIDE RECEIVERS

1) A.J. Green (CIN)
2) Roddy White (ATL)
3) Andre Johnson (HOU)
4) Reggie Wayne (IND)
5) Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
6) Julio Jones (ATL)
7) Randall Cobb (GB)
8) Eric Decker (DEN)
9) Wes Welker (NE)
10) Pierre Garcon (WAS)
11) James Jones (GB)
12) T.Y. Hilton (IND)

OFFENSES

1) New England Patriots
2) Denver Broncos
3) Seattle Seahawks
4) Green Bay Packers
5) Washington Redskins
6) San Francisco 49ers
7) Atlanta Falcons
8) Houston Texans
9) Minnesota Vikings
10) Cincinnati Bengals
11) Baltimore Ravens
12) Indianapolis Colts

DEFENSES

1) San Francisco 49ers
2) Seattle Seahawks
3) Denver Broncos
4) Houston Texans
5) Cincinnati Bengals
6) Minnesota Vikings
7) Atlanta Falcons
8) Green Bay Packers
9) Washington Redskins
10) New England Patriots
11) Baltimore Ravens
12) Indianapolis Colts

HEAD COACHES

1) Jim Harbaugh (SF)
2) Bill Belicheck (NE)
3) Mike McCarthy (GB)
4) John Fox (DEN)
5) Mike Smith (ATL)
6) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
7) Bruce Arians / Chuck Pagano (IND)
8) Mike Shanahan (WAS)
9) Pete Carroll (SEA)
10) Leslie Frazier (MIN)
11) John Harbaugh (BAL)
12) Marvin Lewis (CIN)

TEAMS

1) San Francisco 49ers
2) Denver Broncos
3) Seattle Seahawks
4) New England Patriots
5) Houston Texans
6) Green Bay Packers
7) Atlanta Falcons
8) Washington Redskins
9) Baltimore Ravens
10) Minnesota Vikings
11) Indianapolis Colts
12) Cincinnati Bengals

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2012 MLB Wrap Up Special and Post Season Predictions

I know there have already been many postseason games that have been played and predicting the winner of the Oakland-Detroit series when the Tigers have already won their first two games seems like a crock, but I'm going along with this post anyways. For starters, I already predicted the post season winners after Friday's Wild Card game, one game playoffs from my Twitter account (Feel free to double check my time stamped Tweets) and secondly I wasn't able to write any posts this weekend as I was up in Madison, Wisconsin to see my beloved Illinois Illini get crushed by the Wisconsin Badgers- leaving me no time to post. I also was not going to make any predictions until after Friday's Wild Card games because it is useless to try to use any sort of logic or reason to determine the outcome of only a single game (you hear me baseball gamblers!). Anyways, here are my post season predictions:

Divisional Round

American League
Detroit Tigers def. Oakland A's
Baltimore Orioles def. New York Yankees

National League
Cincinnati Reds def. San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals def. Washington Nationals

Championship Round

Baltimore Orioles def. Detroit Tigers

Cincinnati Reds def. St. Louis Cardinals

World Series

Baltimore Orioles def. Cincinnati Reds

NOTES:

- I do not seriously believe the Baltimore Orioles are even remotely good enough to get to the World Series nevertheless win it all, but then again they were really not that good of a team during the regular season as well. I just think through the randomness that is the MLB playoffs something so screwy and unexpected is going to happen and it's going to be the crappy Orioles winning it all.

- I know one of these play-in wild card teams will win it all because that's how I feel it will work in this rookie year of having two wild cards, but I really think I picked the wrong one and should have gone with the Cardinals.

Not only do the Cardinals always seem to undeservingly win it all (see: 2006 when they barely went over .500-they only won 83 games-and were terrible on paper but they ended up defeating the 96 win Detroit Tigers and the truly better team in the World Series) but dumb, stupid luck / bad officiating that goes in teams favors (like the "in field fly" rule that went in the Cardinals favor on Friday night) always goes towards teams that do well in the post-season. Because the in-field fly rule went in the Cardinals favor they probably will win it all. Don't yell at me, that is just how baseball karma works. Need an example?

In 2005, White Sox catcher AJ Pierzynski reached first base on a terrible "dropped third strike" call that was not really a dropped third strike during an Angels-White Sox game. Getting AJ on base during that play helped the White Sox win that game and the ChiSox ended up winning the World Series. It's stupid  and extremely controversial things like that that only happens to Champions. #JustSaying

- If I was using logic to make post-season predictions I would have the Detroit Tigers come out of the A.L. (and still probably have the Reds in the N.L). Even though Mike Trout's Angels won more games than the Detroit Tigers (more on this to come, probably in a different post), I still think the Tigers have the best overall team in the American League. Their rotation of Verlander-Fister-Scherzer is really good,  they can close out games with Jose Valverde, and they can hit with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder in the heart of that order. The Yankees have rotation issues, the A's have talent issues, and I can't name you a single Oriole in that pitching staff- or really on that team.

END OF SEASON AWARDS

AL MVP

Who Will Win It: Miguel Cabrera (DET)
Who Deserves To Win It: Mike Trout (LAA)

NL MVP

Who Will Win It: Buster Posey (SFG)
Who Deserves To Win It: Buster Posey (SFG)

AL Cy Young

Who Will Win It: Justin Verlander (DET)
Who Deserves To Win It: Justin Verlander (DET)

NL Cy Young

Who Will Win It: Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
Who Deserves To Win It: Gio Gonzalez (WAS)

Rookie Of The Year

AL: Mike Trout (LAA)
NL: Bryce Harper (WAS)

Sophomore Of The Year

AL: Chris Sale (CWS)
NL: Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

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Football Awards Predictions

I have to give this disclaimer for all of my prediction posts. Predictions do not mean anything. They are worthless and I am guaranteed to be wrong. But that being said we all love to read about predictions and I sure as hell love to write about predictions.

PLAYOFF STANDINGS (You can read my division by division standings here)

NFC:
1) San Francisco 49ers
2) Green Bay Packers
3) Atlanta Falcons
4) Philadelphia Eagles
5) Chicago Bears
6) Detroit Lions

NFC Champ: Chicago Bears

AFC:
1) New England Patriots
2) Houston Texans
3) Baltimore Ravens
4) San Diego Chargers
5) Buffalo Bills
6) Cincinnati Bengals

AFC Champ: Houston Texans

SUPERBOWL
Houston Texans def. Chicago Bears

DISCLAIMER: I do not feel strongly about who is going to emerge from either the NFC or AFC. At all. I still think the Packers are the best NFC team and the Patriots are the best AFC team but that doesn't mean anything. The Bears are a total homer pick and while I don't like Gary Kubiak or think he is a good coach, if Matt Schaub was healthy the Texans would have at least made it to the Superbowl last year. So why not. It's crazy that I've always been on the Texans bandwagon and now that they are good, I'm halfway off of it.

END OF SEASON AWARDS:

MVP:
Winner: Tom Brady (NE)
Runner Up: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Dark Horse: Jay Cutler (CHI)

Offensive Rookie Of The Year:
Winner: Doug Martin (TB)
Runner Up: Robert Griffin III (WAS)
Dark Horse: Justin Blackmon (JAX)

Defensive Rookie Of The Year:
Winner: Bruce Irvin (SEA)
Runner Up: Morris Claiborne (DAL)
Dark Horse: Shea McClellin (CHI)

Sophomore Of The Year:
Winner: A.J. Green (CIN)
Runner Up: Patrick Peterson (ARI)
Dark Horse: Jake Locker (TEN)

Defensive Player Of The Year:
Winner: Patrick Willis (SF)
Runner Up: Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)
Dark Horse: Julius Peppers (CHI)

Best Running Back:
Winner: Arian Foster (HOU)
Runner Up: LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Dark Horse: Jamaal Charles (KC)

Best Wide Receiver:
Winner: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Runner Up: Brandon Marshall (CHI)
Dark Horse: Jordy Nelson (GB)

Coach Of The Year:
Winner: Greg Schiano (TB)
Runner Up: Bill Belichick (NE)
Dark Horse: Norv Turner (SD)

NOTE: The Coach of the Year award always goes to the coach whose team does well when nobody expected them to. Last year NOBODY expected the 49ers to do well and they won 13 games so the Niners head coach Jim Harbaugh won the Coach of the Year award. This year I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to be that team (and could potentially earn that 6th seed over the Lions) so that is why I picked Schiano.

However, I think the top two contenders of the CotY award should be given to the number one seeds in each division (and personally I would give the award to Belichick every year). Belichick and Mike McCarthy are unquestionably two of the three best coaches in football right now (the 3rd being Tom Coughlin) so why should they be "punished" because people expect them to succeed and they do succeed?

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Projecting The 2012 NFL Season

As always, I have to clarify that I believe all projections are worthless because not only is there a lot of groupthink involved which heavily sways opinion but almost all the time, if not every single time, projections are just flat out wrong. Projections asks ordinary human beings to predict the future and it is just not something we mere mortals of capable of doing. Yet. Despite that, projections are still fun to do and something that people love to read about and I love to write about.

NFC NORTH
1) Green Bay Packers
2) Chicago Bears*
3) Detroit Lions*
4) Minnesota Vikings

Overall Thoughts:
In my opinion this is the toughest division in football right now. I'm sure you can make the argument that the AFC North is better and you're probably right, but this division went from one of the weakest to one of the toughest in the past few years... The Green Bay Packers are by far and away the best overall team in football led by Aaron Rodgers and a defense that's better than you think. It's hard to prove you are a good defense when your offense is putting up 35 points a game... Last year I put the Chicago Bears second in the division over the then trendy Detroit Lions and if Jay Cutler did not get injured (even despite the Matt Forte injury) the Bears would have had a better record than the Lions. The Lions still have not proven themselves better than the Bears and until they take second place away from Chicago (as opposed to Chicago giving it away) I will always put the Bears on top. The addition of Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall will give the Bears a potent offensive attack to go along with their staunch defense (although the Brian Urlacher injury could be a playoff killer)... I have always been weary of the Madden curse and with Calvin Johnson on the cover this year, I'm scared for both Megatron and the Lions offense. As good of numbers as Stafford put up last year, a lot of his throws came just by throwing a jump ball and having Megatron be better than everyone else and winning the "500 game". An injured or non-productive Johnson equals a mediocre offense... The Vikings were terrible last year and did nothing to drastically improve their team and while I believe AD will play and be his old self again, it's hard seeing them getting more than 5 wins.

NFC EAST
1) Philadelphia Eagles
2) New York Giants
3) Washington Redskins
4) Dallas Cowboys

Overall Thoughts
I'm sick of everyone clamoring this to be a top tiered division. This is mainly because we all overrate the teams, mainly the Cowboys and until last year the Giants (of course you can also make the argument that the Eagles hype went too far) so in honor of the backlash, I'm saying no one from the division will earn a wild card birth, like last year... The Eagles were anointed one of, if the not the best teams in football last year and deservingly so and if the Philly franchise wasn't run by retards and a)Have their offensive line coach become their defensive coordinator and b)Run a 9-2 defensive scheme with 3 out of the top 15 (maybe even top 10) cornerbacks in the league they they would have won this division. A new D-coordinator equals a playoff contender... Despite the Giants winning the Superbowl last team, the team overall under head coach Tom Coughlin has been an inconsistent and mediocre regular season team. I expect that trend to continue... The Redskins have had a pretty good defense over the past few years and can you image what the Carolina Panthers would have been last year if Cam Newton wasn't playing with an atrocious defense?... Tony Romo is an injury risk, DeMarco Murray is an injury risk, Miles Austin is an injury risk, Jason Witten has a broken spleen, and Dez Bryant is an injury risk as well as a suspension risk. Plus, one of the worst offensive lines in the game. No matter how good of a team you are (and Dallas was not all that good to begin with) injuries always equals a losing season in the NFL.

NFC SOUTH
1) Atlanta Falcons
2) Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3) New Orleans Saints
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Carolina Panthers

Overall Thoughts
Atlanta seems like the tallest midget to me. Despite the talent on offense and despite the moniker "Matty Ice", Matt Ryan has yet to prove to me he's a quarterback capable of even whiffing guys like Tom Brady or even Phillip Rivers's a**hole. (NOTE: I would have said the same thing about Eli Manning last year at this time and he proved me wrong during the 2011 season). Even two years ago when Atlanta had the best record in the NFC, nothing about them scared me and I was proven right when they didn't win a single playoff game that year (in fact Ryan has never won a playoff game) and the Falcons would have not made the playoffs last year if Jay Cutler had been healthy all 16 games... Don't really like Cam Newton or Steve Smith all that much this year but I really hate the Saints this season and the Panthers do have an elite talent level quarterback... Last year, when head coach Sean Peyton missed a game the Saints lost to the St. Louis Rams, a team that was fighting all year long to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Sean Peyton's injury scares me a lot and he means a lot more to this team that I think people realize... As much as I like Josh Freeman and I think he will revert to his 2010 self, I'm too much of a pu$$y to put them ahead of the other teams and even if I'm "right" and the Bucs do have a bad season this season, their team is still super, super young and a future force to be reckoned with

NFC WEST
1) San Fransico 49ers
2) Seattle Seahawks
3) Arizona Cardinals
4) St. Louis Rams

Overall Thoughts
Even if the 49ers are not as good or dominant as they were last year, their rise to the NFL elite status was not a fluke and in probably the worst division in football, they will remain perched atop the NFC West. As much as I dislike the man, Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach... While I do not trust either T.O. or Sidney Rice and even with many games missed by Beast Mode (Marshawn Lynch) the Seahawks have one of the best offensive lines in football which will make Matt Flynn and Robert Turbin look pretty darn good... Kevin Kolb is horrible but John Skelton is an average to above-average QB. Larry Fitzgerald fantasy owners might have to wait a few weeks though before getting elite level production from him... I still believe in the power and talent of Sam Bradford and while the Rams did add super coach (although he has always been overrated to me) Jeff Fischer what else really did they add to make them not be a bottom dwelling team?

AFC NORTH
1) Baltimore Ravens
2) Cincinnati Bengals*
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Cleveland Browns

Overall Thoughts
As much as I do not like Joe Flacco or the way the Ravens O-coordinator has handled many offensive games in 2011 (i.e. by allowing Joe Flacco to "take over games"), this team has one of the best offensive weapons in the game in Ray Rice and an always killer defense which means 12-13 wins for them is almost inevitable... Really like the BenJarvis Green-Ellis signing (hell, Marvin Lewis made Cedric Benson look good. Imagine what he can do with a talented running back) to add to the trifecta of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Plus, the Bungals have a nice little defense there... The Steelers will duke it out with the Cowboys for the worst offensive line in football which I believe will cause a stuttering offense and with Bill Cowher's team getting older and moving towards ineffectiveness and with Mike Tomlin's team coming into fruition (I never liked Mike Tomlin in terms of drafting and running a team and have always touted to deaf ears that he inherited one of the best jobs in football by getting Cowher's amazing team and Dick LeBeau's amazing defensive schemes) I think Tomlin's "true colors" will show. And those colors are "bad". Maybe it's "puke green"?... Brown have by far and away the worst receiving corps in the NFL, one of the worst offenses in the NFL and I can't name you a single defensive player they have. Does Josh Cribbs play defense as well?

AFC EAST
1) New England Patriots
2) Buffalo Bills*
3) New York Jets
4) Miami Dolphins

Overall Thoughts:
Despite all the struggles the Pats had on defense in 2011 they still have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in 2012 to end up being the top dog in a pretty terrible division... Whether or not I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick's ineffectiveness in 2011 was due to a rib injury or just Ryan Fitzpatrick being Ryan Fitzpatrick, they still have an awesome running game with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller and the addition of Mario Williams gives the Bills a damn good front seven... A terrible Jets team was made worse by a)Adding Tim Tebow b)Continuing to play Mark Sanchez at QB c)Losing L.T. and Plaxico Burress without adding anyone to replace them and d)An old team becoming one year older... God are the Miami Dolphins bad and they made themselves worse by trading away Brandon Marshall and starting (in 2012) Ryan Tannenhill (Matt Moore was surprisingly better than you think).

AFC SOUTH
1) Houston Texans
2) Tennessee Titans
3) Indianapolis Colts
4) Jacksonville Jaguars

Overall Thoughts:
I still don't like Gary Kubiak has a head coach but the defensive talent he still has along with Arian Foster and Ban Tate will be enough to win games over the rest of the terrible teams in this division... I had a really tough time determining which bad team was worse the Titans over the Colts. I choose the Titans because they won't have a rookie at the helm. Just a fantasy note, I hate Chris Johnson this year and I'm not giving him a mulligan for last year. CJ2K's game was all predicated on burst and if he's lost it, which I believe he has, he's just a run-of-the-mill runningback.. I know it is a lazy comparison but I do believe Andrew Luck is the next Peyton Manning. That being said, even Manning went 1-15 his rookie year. The reason a team picks first overall is because they have and continue to have a horrific team... Despite the nice little receiving corps the Jags have, they still have Blaine Gabbert running the ship. That being said, I could see Jacksonville having the best defense in this division and that combined with MJD could mean a first place finish in this bad division. But again, they still have Blaine Gabbert.

AFC WEST
1) San Diego Chargers
2) Denver Broncos
3) Oakland Raiders
4) Kansas City Chiefs

Overall Thoughts:
My raging boner for Phillip Rivers knows no bounds. The only reason he didn't end up on my fantasy team was because the beautiful Tom Brady was severely undervalued and I couldn't pass up the price (and thank goodness I did). Last year I projected the Chargers to win the Superbowl but now as I clear the egg off of my face I like the addition of Robert Meachum and the subtraction of Vincent Jackson. Obviously not from a talent perspective but from a chemistry perspective. In 2010, when Rivers was literally throwing to people off of the street he had his best season. I think the same will happen again this year... Even if a 36 year old Peyton Manning manages to stay healthy for all 16 games and even if for some reason Demaryius Thomas also plays 16 games and is the next Marvin Harrison and even if Eric Decker puts up Reggie Wayne-esque numbers, Manning still will play 15 out of his 16 games outdoors and will not get the benefit of cooshy, indoors Lucas Oil Stadium. Plus, even if Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are the sack machines they were last year, the rest of their defense is so terrible that having an amazing pass rush will not make up for the rest of the holes. Point is, this was an incredibly lucky team last year and will not repeat... Carson Palmer will rebound having had not only an offseason with the team but also the ability to play all 16 games with the Raiders... As much as I like the rushing attack of Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis for the Chiefs, very little can make up for the fact that Kansas City has Romeo Crennel as their head coach.

** Denotes Wild Card Birth
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Mega Baseball Prediction Post

We here at The Cover 3 do not believe in predictions of any kind. They are worthless. None of us actually know what we're talking about and everyone who predicts will be grossly incorrect at the end.

But that being said, it sure is fun to write and read about predictions, right?

AL EAST

1) Boston Red Sox
2) New York Yankees*
3) Tampa Bay Rays
4) Toronto Blue Jays
5) Baltimore Orioles

AL CENTRAL

1) Minnesota Twins
2) Detroit Tigers
3) Kansas City Royals
4) Chicago White Sox
5) Cleveland Indians

AL WEST

1) Los Angeles Angels
2) Texas Rangers
3) Oakland A's
4) Seattle Mariners

NL EAST

1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) Miami Marlins*
3) Washington Nationals
4) Atlanta Braves
5) New York Mets

NL CENTRAL

1) Milwaukee Brewers
2) Cincinnati Reds
3) St. Louis Cardinals
4) Chicago Cubs
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
6) Houston Astros

NL WEST

1) San Francisco Giants
2) Arizona Diamondbacks
3) San Diego Padres
4) Los Angeles Dodgers
5) Colorado Rockies

*Denotes Wild Card Birth

AL MVP

WINNER: Adrian Gonzalez (BOS)
RUNNER UP: Miguel Cabrera (DET)
DARK HORSE: Joe Mauer (MIN)

NL MVP

WINNER: Joey Votto (CIN)
RUNNER UP: Justin Upton (ARI)
DARK HORSE: Hunter Pence (PHI)

AL CY YOUNG

WINNER: Jared Weaver (LAA)
RUNNER UP: C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
DARK HORSE: Jon Lester (BOS)

NL CY YOUNG

WINNER: Zack Grienke (MIL)
RUNNER UP: Roy Halladay (PHI)
DARK HORSE: Madison Bumgarner (SF)

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

WINNER: Brett Lowrie (TOR)
RUNNER UP: Mike Trout (LAA)
WILD CARD: Jesus Montero (SEA)

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

WINNER: Julio Teheran (ATL)
RUNNER UP: Shelby Miller (STL)
WILD CARD: Devin Mesoraco (CIN)

AL SOPHOMORE OF THE YEAR
WINNER: Desmond Jennings (TB)
RUNNER UP: Eric Hosmer (KC)
WILD CARD: Jeremy Hellickson (TB)

NL SOPHOMORE OF THE YEAR
WINNER: Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
RUNNER UP: Dee Gordon (LAD)
WILD CARD: Vance Worley (PHI)
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