BEST PICTURE: Birdman BEST DIRECTOR: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman) BEST ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) BEST ACTRESS: Julianne Moore (Still Alice) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, et al (Birdman) BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Graham Moore (The Imitation Game)
BEST "OTHER FILM"
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE: How To Train Your Dragon 2 BEST DOCUMENTARY: Citizenfour BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Ida
However, there's no way on God's Green Earth that a film like Edge of Tomorrow or Guardians of the Galaxy was going to get a Best Picture nomination in 2015. A film that actually had a chance to earn a nomination was Dan Gilroy's dark and twisted thriller Nightcrawler. The acting in the film was spectacular, the story was so complex, layered, and nuanced, and it sucked you in from the get go. Just an incredible film and a perfect movie to speak to those 30 and under- which of course is not in The Academy's wheelhouse which is why it didn't receive a nomination.
You should have listened to me. I told you and you didn't listen to me. I told you a few weeks ago when Boyhood was the favorite to win Best Picture and Richard Linklater was the favorite to win Best Director that you should place your money on Birdman and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. Now that the Director's Guild of America (DGA) and the Producer's Guild of America (PGA) have voted Inarritu and his film as the very best of the year, we now have our Oscar favorite in the Best Picture and Best Director category.
For all of the talk about the SAG awards and the Golden Globes, and even the BAFTAs, the DGA awards are the single best predictor on who is going to win Best Director and Best Picture. Since 1999, the winner of the DGA's film has gone on to win Best Picture 12 out of the 15 times. Out of three non-predictive years, two of those instances involved Ang Lee (2000's Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and 2005's Brokeback Mountain) with the other instance involving last year's Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity. However, in 2013, Gravity never felt like the front runner as the Best Picture Oscar was always 12 Years A Slave's to lose. Plus, 2005's Best Picture winner Crash is considered the biggest Oscar upset of all time.
These are not my official selections for who I think will actually win the Oscar for their respected category, but who I think has a realistic shot of winning their category while still giving you favorable odds. Here's how to win money at the 2015 Academy Awards.
BEST ACTOR- EDDIE REDMAYNE (THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING)
This selection comes with the caveat that your bookie or "off shore website" both has Michael Keaton as the favorite and doesn't require you to put more money down than you'll get back. Last week Variety released their Vegas odds and it had Redmayne as the second favorite with 11/10 odds- which isn't that great but it's probably the best you'll get for him. However, I do think there's a greater chance that Eddie Redmayne wins the Oscar than Michael Keaton does. Michael Keaton gave a stellar performance and Redmayne gave a performance that almost literally any actor in Hollywood could do, but that's irrelevant because that's not how Oscar voters think. Academy voters see a "daring" and "brilliant" performance from Redmayne as they do for anyone who pretends to feign a disability. What's also working in Eddie Redmayne's favor is there there isn't a whole lot of precedent for roles that Michael Keaton played who also won a Best Actor Oscar. Keaton is shoehorned into the Older Actor / Comeback / Great Career category, Previous recipient of this nomination include Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), and David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck)- all of whom lost. Compare that to Eddie Redmayne who not only plays a brilliant artist/musician/mathematician like Jamie Foxx (Ray), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote), and Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind) but has a disability like Colin Firth (The King's Speech)- all of whom are winners. The only thing against really going against Redmayne is articles like this one and this one who vehemetly hate what kind of performance Redmayne gives, but fortunately for him, old white dudes with Oscar votes don't read blogs.
There are two films that I have constantly seen at the top of many critics Best Of lists in 2014: Birdman and Boyhood, with the latter earning almost the consensus top spot on every list I've seen. It's no coincidence that both those films are huge risks and passion projects from their respected directors. Both filmmakers, Richard Linklater for Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman, have a few movies under their belt (obviously Linklater has a tad more than Inarritu) and decided to release their passion project to the world this year; to release a project that many would consider on the riskier side. Last year's big passion project, Gravity, worked out pretty well for its director Alfonso Cuaron both critically and financially, and now Linklater and Inarritu hope for the same. For the time being, both directors have that whole "critical acclaim" down pat and both look like the two huge players as award season has just started to heat up. As we go down the rabbit hole for the next couple of months and more and more people start talking about these film, the real question is: Should you go out and see them? I'm sure the people, like professional critics, who watch five movies a day appreciated the work these directors did and that paid off in terms of ending up on Year End lists, but should you, the average movie goer go see them? Just because Linklater and Inarritu took risks, doesn't mean they paid off.
10) Gone Girl / Insterstellar Release Dates(s): Oct 3rd / Nov 7th Directed By: David Fincher / Christopher Nolan Starring: Ben Affleck, Rosamund Pike, NPH, & Tyler Perry / Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway, & Jessica Chastain Excitement Level: 5
MY THOUGHTS ON THESE FILMS: I grouped Gone Girl and Interstellar together because these films: are made by the two best filmmakers of my generation, led by actors who were complete jokes five years ago, and both look boring as shit. If you didn't tell me who directed these films and just showed me the trailers, these films wouldn't even make my list. But David Fincher and Christopher Nolan will 100% get the benefit of the doubt, and because these men are extremely talented, I'm sure the films will truly be great. Gone Girl is based upon a book by Gillian Flynn, and both my mother and wife tell me it's phenomenal. Great source material + David Fincher's direction should equal genius movie, but these trailers sure don't make it seem that way.
Interstellar is not based off of anything but the brilliant mind of Christopher Nolan. While he is coming off of the first creative dud of his career since Insomnia (The Dark Knight Rises), Nolan easily has the best start to any directorial career ever with Memento, Batman Begins, The Prestige, The Dark Knight, and Inception. Nolan has an excellent eye for big budget science fiction, but if the movie is anything like the trailer, then Insterstellar will be Matthew McConaughey waxing poetic for two and a half hours. And despite the McConaissance, McConaughey's projects themselves have been up and down. Mud was solid but not great, The Wolf of Wall Sreet was incredible (although he's barely in it), The Dallas Buyers Club was just OK but it's fault lay with its indie budget and limited worldview, and True Detective is gorgeous and well-acted, but boring as shit. I just hope I don't say Interstellar is gorgeous and well-acted, but boring as shit.
