How Did My Academy Award Predictions Turn Out?

Overall: 17 / 24 (71%)

You can see all of my predictions for the 85th Academy Awards here

BEST CALL: Predicting Ang Lee (Life of Pi) would win Best Director

WORST CALL: Choosing Tommy Lee Jones over Christoph Waltz for Best Supporting Actor
(Also, I should have chosen "Curfew" over "Buzkashi Boys" for Best Live Action Short. If you read as much Oscar blogs and articles as I have it was obvious)

BIG SIX CATEGORIES: 5/6
(Best Film, Best Director, the 4 acting categories)

Ten Quick Reactions to the 85th Academy Awards Ceremony

1) I thought Seth MacFarlane did an excellent job. I know most of the internet hates him but I thought he was great. He was exactly what you would expect out of Seth MacFarlane: he was crude, he was charming, he sang and danced, and most importantly- he was funny. I adored his opening monologue. I love the jokes at the beginning that were supposed to fail and I couldn't stop laughing at everything involving Capt Kirk. That personified what Seth MacFarlane is: he is both a frat boy and a classy guy. That what you should expect out of MacFarlane. If people didn't like Seth MacFarlane then I don't know what people are expecting out of Oscar hosts.

My favorite MacFarlane joke of the night. After Daniel Day-Lewis won (more below), MacFarlane comes on screen and says, "In order to prepare for this incredible role Daniel Day-Lewis really got inside the 16th President's head. No one has gotten that far inside Lincoln's head since John Wilkes Booth." I laughed hysterically but the crowd did not. MacFarlane's comeback was great as well. "Too soon? Is 150 years not enough time to let that joke fly?" Loved Sethy M and I'll defend his greatness against everyone on the internet.

Apparently hosting the Academy Awards is like being the head coach of the Oakland Raiders: no matter you do you're going to be terrible, you get one year max (two if you're lucky), and everybody remembers and pines for the good old days.

Predicting the Winners of the 85th Academy Awards

BEST PICTURE: Argo

BEST DIRECTOR: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURED FILM: Wreck-It Ralph

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Searching For Sugarman

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Michael Haneke (Amour)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo (Chris Terrio)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi (Claudio Miranda)

BEST FILM EDITING: Argo (William Goldberg)

BEST HAIR AND MAKE UP: Les Miserables

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Anna Karenina (Jacqueline Durran)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Amour

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Adele and Paul Epworth "Skyfall" (Skyfall)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Life of Pi

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: The Paperman

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Buzkashi Boys

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Mondays at Racine

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi

BEST SOUND EDITING: Argo

BEST SOUND MIXING: Les Miserables


Stone Cold Locks

- Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
- Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
- Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
- Best Animated Film: Wreck-It Ralph
- Best Documentary Feature: Searching For Sugarman
- Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Almost A Sure Thing

- Best Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio (Argo)
- Best Original Song: "Skyfall" (Skyfall)
- Best Cinematography: Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi)
- Best Editing: William Golberg (Argo)

Between Two Candidates

- Best Picture: Argo
- Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Best Director: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Strong Educated Guesses

- Best Orginal Screenplay: Michael Haneke (Amour)
- Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
- Best Animated Short: The Paperman
- Best Make Up and Hairstyling: Les Miserables
- Best Production Design: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
- Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Straight Up Guesses / I Stole What Other People Predicted

- Best Original Score: Life of Pi
- Best Documentary Short: Mondays at Racine
- Best Live Action Short: Buzkashi Boys
- Best Sound Editing: Argo

What are your predictions for the 85th Academy Awards?

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2013 Oscar Preview: The Random Categories

Click here for my introduction

BEST ANIMATED FILM

- In a year where all five nominations came from Hollywood and came to a theater near me, I only managed to see two of them: Brave and Wreck-It Ralph

- Wreck-It Ralph is incredible and it upsets me that it's not getting the buzz that previous Best Motion Picture Nominees Toy Story 3 and Up got. Not only was it (in my narrow mind) easily the best animated picture of 2012, but it was one of the best films of 2012 (#2 on my personal list) and one of the best animated films in the past 15 years.
- Brave was visually stunning and the animation- in regards to the setting and such- were stupidly good. However, the story was thin and dull and if Cars 2 didn't exist, Brave would compete for the worst film Pixar has ever produced. That's not saying it's inherently bad, but that is a result of the high bar Pixar set for itself. Either way, I don't think Brave deserves to win or will win.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Picture

Click here for my introduction

NOMINEES

• Amour
• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln
• Life of Pi
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Director

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NOMINEES

• Michael Haneke (Amour)
• Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
• David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
• Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
• Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Actor

Click here for my introduction

NOMINEES:

• Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
• Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
• Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
• Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
• Denzel Washington (Flight)

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Actress

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NOMINEES

• Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
• Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
• Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
• Qu'venzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
• Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Supporting Actor

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NOMINEES

• Alan Arkin (Argo)
• Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
• Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
• Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

MY THOUGHTS

For the first time ever, we have an acting category full of past winners. Who will win their second (or third) Oscar?

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Supporting Actress

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NOMINEES

• Amy Adams (The Master)
• Sally Field (Lincoln)
• Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
• Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
• Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Make Up and Hairstyling

Click here for my introduction

NOMINEES

• Hitchcock
• Les Miserables
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Original Screenplay

Click here for my introduction

NOMINEES

• Amour (Michael Haneke)
• Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
• Flight (Michael Gatins)
• Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)
• Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Adapted Screenplay

Click here for my introduction

NOMINEES

• Argo (Chris Terrio)
• Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar)
• Life of Pi (David Magee)
• Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
• Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Best Cinematography

Click here for my introduction

WHAT IS CINEMATOGRAPHY?

Before I begin this post, it is probably best to explain to you what “cinematography” actually is because I’m sure most of you reading this post have no idea. Cinematography is the look of the film. The director is the one in charge and ultimately everyone answers to the director, but the one actually behind the camera is the Director of Photography- or the cinematographer. Everything about how a particular scene LOOKS is due to the Director of Photography (DP). How the light affects the scene, the framing of the scene, and how the scene looks is (mostly) because of the DP. 

For example, about a year ago, shots of the filming of the climax scene between Bane and Batman from The Dark Knight Rises were released. The movie was shot in the middle of summer in Pittsburgh but the scene itself takes place during the cold of winter with snowflakes falling from the sky. When you see the final product, it absolutely looks like Bane and Batman are fighting in the middle of winter and there is no evidence the scene was shot in the wrong season. The way Wally Pfister (Nolan’s Oscar-winning DP) shot the scene and tinted the light and such makes you believe you are watching a gloomy, dark, and cold fight. The reason it looks that way is about of the DP and that’s (generally) what a DP does.

NOMINEES

• Anna Karenina (Seamus McGarvey)
• Django Unchained (Robert Richardson)
• Life of Pi (Claudio Miranda)
• Lincoln (Janusz Kaminiski)
• Skyfall (Roger Deakins)

MY THOUGHTS

2013 Oscar Preview: Introduction

In 2012, I saw 121 films, 40 of which came out in 2012. As of the writing of this post I have seen 45 46 47 films that were released in 2012. I absolutely do not consider myself a movie buff (which helps explains why so my times people have come up to me and asked, “Have you seen Film X?” and are flabbergasted when I haven’t seen it). However, what I am is a lover of film. I love to see films, I love to talk about them, and I have seen a shit ton of films in my life. My goal is to see the very best films and one day I hope I will be able to get to a point where I have seen every single Film X. But for right now, all I have are my experiences, my knowledge, and my opinions. I also love debating the Oscars. Even though they let me down every single year, I still do enjoy talking about them nonetheless.

Predicting the Best Picture Race: Argo vs. Lincoln

It seems that the two legitimate contenders to win Best Picture at the 85th Oscars are Lincoln and Argo. Of course anything can happen but the common perception is that these two are the two to beat.

Looking Back On My Predictions For The 2013 Oscar Nominations

BEST PICTURE

How Did I Do?: 8/9

BEST CALL: Beasts of the Southern Wild

WORST CALL: Not selecting Amour

NOTES: A pretty good list from me if I do say so myself and I'm also going to pay myself on the back for saying 9 films would get selected. If I had to extend my list to 10 I would have selected Amour as the 10th but I am shocked The Master didn't get a nomination and a foreign language film did.
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What I Got Right: Argo, Beasts Of The Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life Of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

What I Should Have Done: Selected Amour instead of The Master

BEST DIRECTOR

How Did I Do?: 2/5

BEST CALL: Ang Lee (Life Of Pi)

WORST CALL: Every one of my other selections

NOTES: What a complete at utter joke these five nominees are. Ben Affleck (Argo) and Katheryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) absolutely needed to be there. I'm actually fine with no Tarantino and I really enjoyed Silver Linings Playbook so I'm not super upset to see David O. Russell there but still, he probably shouldn't be nominated considering how super deep 2012 is.

I think Affleck needs to be there because Argo was incredible (and because Affleck did the best directing out of everyone in 2012) and based on what I've heard about Zero Dark Thirty so does Bigelow. Despite my opinion on Lincoln of course Spielberg was going to get nominated and Life Of Pi was too brilliant to leave Ang Lee off of the list. That's four (Affleck, Bigelow, Lee, Spielberg) selections right there with maybe Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts), or Tarantino fighting for the fifth. That would have been both fair and just. (Although personally having Beasts get no nominations is probably fair and just. Have you seen it? It's boring as all hell).
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What I Got Right: Ang Lee (Life Of Pi), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts Of The Southern Wild), and David O. Russell over Ben Affleck (Argo), Katheryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), and Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

BEST ACTOR

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: Saying BOTH Bradley Cooper (SLP) and Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) would get nominated since it seemed like these two were fighting against each other for the "fifth spot"

WORST CALL: Saying Denzel Washington (Flight) would not get a nomination

NOTES: There were six obvious contenders for only five slots. Daniel Day-Lewis was a mortal lock and I just knew that both Bradley Cooper and Joaquin Phoenix would get a nomination because they were both incredible. That left Hugh Jackman (Les Mis), John Hawkes (The Sessions), and Washington fighting for two spots. It turns out that Hawkes was the odd man out and not Washington. In my defense though, I DID SAY that I was guaranteed to be wrong about Denzel missing out.
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What I Got Right: Bradley Cooper (SLP), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Mis), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Denzel Washington (Flight) over John Hawkes (The Sessions)

BEST ACTRESS

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: Qu'venzhane Wallis (Beasts Of The Southern Wild)

WORST CALL: Not going through one of my last second edit of deleting Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) and adding Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

NOTES: I am so proud of myself for this one. The only locks were Jennifer Lawrence (SLP) and Jessica Chastain (ZDT) so the fact that I got four out of five correct in what I said was the category I felt the weakest about feels pretty good to me.
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What I Got Right: Jessica Chastain (ZDT), Jennifer Lawrence (SLP), Qu'venzhane Wallis (Beasts), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) over Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: The four that I predicted would get a nomination and did get a nomination took no big leaps of faith on my part so no real "best call" here

WORST CALL: Claiming that all five of my selections would be 100% correct and "stone cold locks"

NOTES: God does the Academy hate Leo. I know he has three nominations and two are for Best Lead Actor but listen to the list of films Leonardo DiCaprio has been in in which he DID NOT receive a nomination: Django Unchained, Inception, The Departed, Titanic, Catch Me If You Can, and Gangs of New York. I bet DiCaprio wished The Great Gatsby was a 2012 film not, huh? Although with the Academy's hatred of him, it might not matter and he'll probably get snubbed again at next year's Oscars.
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What I Got Right: Alan Arkin (Argo), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Robert De Niro (SLP), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Christoph Waltz (Django) over Leonardo DiCaprio (Django)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: Amy Adams (The Master). She was no lock to getting a nomination considering her SAG snub, but I also really didn't go out on this one either.

WORST CALL: Thinking Jacki Weaver only had a 10% chance of getting nominated.

NOTES: Even though Weaver neither received a SAG nomination nor a Golden Globe nomination and even though Nicole Kidman received both, Weaver earned the "last spot" over Kidman.
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What I Got Right: Adam Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Mis), Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Jacki Weaver (SLP) over Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

How Did I Do?: 4/5

BEST CALL: Michael Haneke (Amour)

WORST CALL: Thinking the Academy actually liked, or at least respected, The Master

NOTES: Out of the four selections I got correct, only two (Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty) earned WGA nominations. However, Quentin Tarantino (Django) is not in the WGA so of course he was not going to receive a nomination (although weirdly that hasn't stopped the WGA from nominating him in the past) and Haneke wasn't eligible because the "A" in "WGA" stands for "America" and Haneke is not from America. Even though John Gatnis did earn a WGA nominations, I really did not think that it would translate over into an Oscar nod. However, it did. It's a shame the same didn't hold true for Rian Johnson (Looper).
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What I Got Right: Amour (Michael Haneke), Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino), Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola), Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

What I Should Have Done: Selected Flight (John Gatnis) over The Master (P.T. Anderson)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

How Did I Do?: 5/5

BEST CALL: Picking all five nominations perfectly

WORST CALL: NONE MOTHA FUCKAS!

NOTES: The only other contender for this category was Stephen Chbosky for The Perks Of Being A Wallflower because it earned a WGA nomination. However, because Benh Zeitlin is not in the WGA (in fact, no one associated with Beasts Of The Southern Wild is in ANY guild) he wasn't going to be nominated for a WGA. However, I knew Zeitlin would earn Chbosky's place come Oscar time.
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What I Got Right: Argo (Chris Terrio), Beasts Of The Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin), Life Of Pi (David Magee), Lincoln (Tony Kushner), Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell

What I Should Have Done: N/A

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Final 2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions

BEST PICTURE

- Argo
- Beasts Of The Southern Wild
- Django Unchained
- Les Miserables
- Life Of Pi
- Lincoln
- The Master
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Beasts Of The Southern Wild getting a nomination

BEST DIRECTOR

- Ben Affleck (Argo)
- Katheryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Ang Lee (Life Of Pi)
- Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
- Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) not getting nominated. Probably over Ang Lee

BEST ACTOR

- Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
- John Hawkes (The Sessions)
- Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
- Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
- Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

WHAT I'M DEFINITELY WRONG ABOUT: Denzel Washington (Flight) not getting a nomination. He'll probably get it over Phoenix.

BEST ACTRESS

- Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Marion Cotilliard (Rust and Bone)
- Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Qu'venzhane Wallis (Beasts Of The Southern Wild)
- Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: In a weak year (in an always weak category) this is the category I'm the most unsure about. I could see Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), and Rachel Weisz (Deep Blue Sea) each getting nominated. Only Chastain and Lawrence are locks.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

- Alan Arkin (Argo)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
- Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Nothing. All five of these are stone cold locks.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

- Amy Adams (The Master)
- Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
- Helent Hunt (The Sessions)
- Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
- Sally Field (Lincoln)

WHAT I'M PROBABLY WRONG ABOUT: Maggie Smith not getting a nomination. Probably for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Also, for some reason Amy Adams' nomination is in jeopardy.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

- Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
- Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)
- Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Michael Haneke (Amour)
- Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

WHAT I'M MAYBE WRONG ABOUT: Possibly John Gatins for Flight but overall I think this is a good list

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

- Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
- David Magee (Life Of Pi)
- David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Chris Terrio (Argo)
- Benh Zeitlin (Beasts Of The Southern Wild)

WHAT I'M MAYBE WRONG ABOUT: It's hard to get a gauge on Beasts Of The Southern Wild considering it wasn't eligible for any of the guilds (WGA, SAG, DGA, and PGA) so it hasn't gotten nominated for anything beforehand. It's possible Stephen Chbosky (The Perks Of Being A Wallflower) gets nominated considering it has some Oscar buzz and it did get a WGA nod, but I'm still putting blind faith in Beasts (whether or not I think it deserves to be there is another story)
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NOTE: This is a list of who I think WILL get a nomination and not about who I think DESERVES to get a nomination. That post will come later.
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Who Will Get An Oscar Nomination?

Let The Cover 3 be your guide on the road to the 2013 Oscars.

With the nominees for the SAG awards announced last Wednesday and the nominees for the Golden Globe awards announced last Thursday, it is now officially Oscar season! Who cares about these smaller and less important awards? All they really are are stepping stones to drum up Oscar support.

On Thursday, January 10th, the Academy will officially announce the nominees for the 2013 Oscars. But until then, we are left in anxious anticipation about who will be nominated, who should be nominated, and who was snubbed. And until January 10th, The Cover 3 will be constantly updating their list on who we think will actually be nominated.

On the top left side of our blog you will see a heading entitled "Predicting the 2013 Oscar Nominees" Click on the link to see who we believe will actually get a nomination.

Also, between now and February 24th, The Cover 3 will constantly be creating new content and new blog posts all about the Oscars. From who we believe will get a nomination to who we think we actually win, The Cover 3 will be your home to everything Oscars.

As the Guilds, Golden Globes, and BAFTA start nominating films and announce winners, The Cover 3 will update their Oscar-related content.

So sit back, relax, and let the movie debate begin!

Actor's Oscar Chances From Silver Linings Playbook

Over the weekend I saw Silver Linings Playbook and I loved it. I think it is one of the best films of the year and currently it's #4 on my top ten list of films from 2012 (Full list to come out late December or early January). SLP was my 7th most anticipated fall movie from this season and it exceeded my expectations. This film is written and directed by former Oscar nominee David O. Russell and produced by the Weinstein Company so there is no doubt Silver Linings Playbook will be up for some awards within the next few months. The question now remains is "Which ones"? Here is my predictor of which actors have the best chance to earn an Oscar nomination from their work in Playbook.

5) Chris Tucker- Best Supporting Actor

Odds Of Getting Nominated 1%

Pros: This is the first movie that Chris Tucker has been in since 2007's Rush Hour 3. Hollywood has been eagerly waiting for Tucker to finally return to the silver screen and he does so in dramatic fashion. Tucker plays a mentally ill patient who befriends Bradley Cooper's character and Tucker pops every time he is on screen.

Cons: First of all, he's not in the movie all that often. While his name appears in all the advertisements and commercials, he doesn't really appear in too many scenes. Plus, his character is not really integral to the plot or story. I enjoyed (and I'm sure so did many others) Tucker's performance but if his character wasn't in the film at all I don't think the final product of the film would be drastically different (or at all different). However, Tucker's biggest problem is that he'll be competing against a fellow co-star (more to come later).

4) Jacki Weaver- Best Supporting Actress

Odds Of Getting Nominated: 10%

Pros: For starters, Jacki Weaver is a woman. Normally sex shouldn't matter but it does when it comes to Oscar votes. Let me explain, there are not very many roles in Hollywood for women and even less juicy and Oscar-worthy roles for women. So the fact that Russell wrote a great supporting actress role (and Weaver does a really good job in that role) is already a big boost for Weaver. Weaver also has the benefit of prestige. Two years ago Weaver garnered a Best Supporting Actress nomination for a movie nobody had ever heard of (Animal Kingdom) and she might be able to parlay that nomination into another one here.

Cons: Weaver also suffers from a similar problem that Tucker has in the fact that she loses a lot of screen time to her fellow co-stars. While Weaver does have her "Oscar-worthy scenes" she still plays 4th fiddle (as we'll see below) in the film. Plus, Weaver's name doesn't appear in any advertisements for this film. You would think that because she has an Oscar nomination, this movie is a prime Oscar contender, and was written and director by a guy who also has an Oscar nomination that at ONE point during some part of the commercial the scroll "Oscar nominated actress Jacki Weaver" would have appeared on the screen, but alas it did not. Few scenes plus few promotions could equal bad news for Weaver.

3) Bradley Cooper- Best Actor

Odds Of Getting Nominated: 75%

Pros: Cooper is excellent in this film. Acting extremely well is the first step to getting nominated and this movie far and away showcases Bradley Cooper's amazing acting chops. Cooper benefits from an amazing script (as most Oscar nominated actors do) as well as benefits from playing a mentally ill person. There is an unspoken rule in Hollywood (or quite loudly spoken if you've ever seen Tropic Thunder) that if you play a mentally challenged person you're guaranteed to get an Oscar vote. Bradley Cooper plays a manic/depressive bi-polar who's prone to mood swings which is a "prime disorder" for Oscar voters. As Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump, Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man, and Sean Penn in I Am Sam (among others) have proven, playing a mentally ill character almost guarantees you an Oscar nomination. It also helps Cooper that this movie is excellent. SLP has a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes (and 90% among top critics) as well as an 81 on Metacritic. Cooper carries a great film which will go a long way for him.

Cons: The Best Actor race is always generally deep but 2012 seems even deeper than before. 2012 might be the deepest year for great films in my lifetime and with that brings along a super deep class of great actors. As of this moment, there are three spots that seem to be guarantee locks which is Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln, Joaquin Phoenix for The Master, and Denzel Washington for Flight. While this is a list I don't personally agree with (I would rank Cooper #2 behind Phoenix), it is not my vote that matters and this is a tough uphill battle for Cooper.

Even with those three "mortal locks" Cooper still has to compete with other great contenders. Hitfix's In Contention blog has Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) and John Hawkes (The Sessions) garnering the last two nominations and that still doesn't include Ben Affleck (Argo) and Christoph Waltz/Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained), and Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock).

With all that being said, the fact that Silver Linings Playbook is a comedy (at least a comedy in terms of awards voters) then I could see Cooper gaining momentum come Oscar time. The Golden Globes can heavily sway Oscar voters and the Globes, unlike the Oscars, split their awards into two categories: Drama and Comedy/Musical. Cooper's name will be thrown into the comedy ring while Day-Lewis, Phoenix, and Washington will be in the Drama category. Unfortunately for Cooper he will still have to compete against Hugh Jackman but if Cooper can win Best Actor at the Golden Globes then he can slingshot himself into an Oscar nomination.

2) Robert De Niro- Best Supporting Actor

Odds Of Getting Nominated: 95%

Pros: Come on, he's Robert freaking De Niro. This is a man who has six Oscar nominations and one win. This man is a legend in Hollywood. De Niro would probably get an Oscar nomination without any voter actually seeing this film. It does help that De Niro has his first memorable role since Meet The Parents and stars in his first great film since Heat. De Niro plays a man with severe OCD (which helps his chances, see: Cooper, Bradley above) and there's a scene towards the end of the film where De Niro gives a big and heart-warming speech to Cooper that probably locked his nomination up.

Cons: The only way De Niro doesn't get a nomination is if 1) Silver Linings Playbook gets completely snubbed altogether like Drive did last year or 2) The Oscar voters see the truly deep field De Niro plays in and decide there are other worthy candidates. Truthfully, I think De Niro is guaranteed a nomination but I didn't give him a 100% chance because I left that solely for...

1) Jennifer Lawrence- Best Actress

Odds Of Getting Nominated: 100%

Pros: I have a theory about Meryl Streep. My theory is that she has a shit ton of Oscar nominations just because there are so few good movies in Hollywood with women in the lead role and Streep always gets first dibs of those roles. Streep is of course an amazing actress and deserves to get first dibs but the reason she has a whopping SEVENTEEN nominations is largely due to her gender. Of course talent and longevity play huge factors but the aforementioned De Niro- who has both in spades- only has six nominations. I'm not "ripping" on Streep because I'm sexist (in fact I think Hollywood is the sexist one for not making more movies with women at the center of it) but to prove a point. I think if you're a woman and you're in an "Oscar-worthy" role, you're guaranteed to get a nomination.

If you don't believe me, go back and look at past nominations in the Best Actress category. Ask yourself 1) Have you ever heard of the movie the actress starred in?, 2) If so, have you seen it? and 3) If you haven't seen it, do you have any desire to see it? While there will always be 1 or 2 movies every year you've seen and loved (Black Swan from 2010 comes to mind), chances are you answered "no" to all three questions the vast majority of the time. Go back and do the same for the movies that gave us Best Actor contenders. I bet that you will answer "yes" a helluva lot more times.

Now even with this theory in place, I don't mean to take anything away from Jennifer Lawrence who gave an amazing performance in Silver Linings Playbook. However, her great performance alone is not necessarily enough to get an Oscar nomination. The fact that Lawrence's competition is extremely weak (and generally this category is extremely weak) means we're guaranteed to see commercials in 2013 for Catching Fire starring Oscar-nominated actress Jennifer Lawrence.

Most likely, here is Lawrence's competition. Again, ask yourself the three questions I asked you before:

- Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- Marion Cottilliard (Rust and Bone)
- Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
- Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables)
- Kiera Knightly (Anna Karenina)
- Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) [Although she might be eligible only for Supporting Actress]
- Meryl Streep (Hope Springs) [She might get a nomination just because]

I'm sure there's more but the fact that I'm struggling to come up with more names and not names like "Halle Berry in Cloud Atlas"- stars who are eligible but give terrible performances and/or are in terrible films- tells you all you need to know about my theory.

I'm sure every year you can find five worthy Best Actress candidates but remember, Oscar voters are normal people too. It's hard to get nominated if no one has seen your work. I think the fact that Lawrence is in a great in a movie that Oscar voters will see helps her chances immensely.

Cons: None. I think even if Silver Linings Playbook gets completely snubbed in other categories Lawrence will still get a nomination because she did an amazing job, her pedigree (she was nominated for an Oscar in 2010 for Winter's Bone), and her lack of competition.
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