2012 Bad Quarterback League Update: Week Eleven

1) Adam


Total Points: 927
Points This Week: 99

Miami: 32
St. Louis: 16
Kansas City: 56
Cincinnati: -5*


2) Cahal

Total Points: 912
Points This Week: 103

New York Jets: 8
Tennessee: ---
Chicago: 58
Philadelphia: 37

3) Ben

Total Points: 675
Points This Week: 22

Jacksonville: -9
Pittsburgh: ---**
San Diego: 31
Carolina: 0


4) Colleen

Total Points: 664
Points This Week: 73

Cleveland: 5
Oakland: 24
Buffalo: 26
Baltimore: 18


5) Bryan

Total Points: 607
Points This Week: 99

Arizona: 100
Seattle: ---
Dallas: -1
San Francisco: 0

* NOTE TO THE LEAGUE: I am dropping Cincy for Minnesota
**Ben dropped MIN and TB to pick up PIT and SD this week. However, since MIN had their bye this week and because PIT scored less points than SD this week, PIT acts like MIN pursuant to league rules.

Fantasy Football Facts For 2012 (Positive Edition)

The post prior and the post below this one is a list of facts about all the bad things regarding football players and the overvaluing of players. But I hate to be a Debbie Downer. Plus, you need to be able to draft SOME players for your team. So here is a list of the players I like and would want to own (or do own) on my fantasy teams.

- RUNNING BACKS I BELIEVE IN:

I hate the running backs class this year. I feel like in this year more than any other year there are two many questions marks surrounding the top 25 in the class of backs. On my hate list I included: Ryan Matthews, Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, Willis McGahee, and Shonn Greene. That's 9 out of the top 25 ranked running backs according to ESPN. Take out the consensus big three (Foster, Rice, and McCoy) and that only leaves you with 13 (or little over half) of the rest of the "top tiered talent" to choose from. Here are some steady guys I like:

- BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)

In 2010 The Law Firm got over 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns for the Patriots while only starting 10 games. Imagine what he can do while starting 16 as The Guy for a team (the Cincinnati Bengals) that made Cedric Benson look good.

- Darren Sproles (NO)

Especially more for PPR and 1/2 PPR league. Sporles was a top ten fantasy back in PPR leagues in 2011.

- Steven Jackson (STL)

The guy is just rock solid, has only missed two games within the last three years, plays for a very run heavy coach in Jeff Fischer and the safety, to me, is worth the risk versus guys like Ryan Matthews and Darren McFadden. 

               - INJURY PRONE RUNNING BACKS I LIKE:

- Jamaal Charles (KC)

The guy was a top 2 talent in fantasy only two years ago. There is no reason he shouldn't revert back to form. While all injury experts say he won't be the same player early on in the year (so maybe you can take a Rashad Jennings to help even the work load) I think he'll be money in the bank come playoff time.

- Adrian Peterson (MIN)

A.D. is just a physical beast and in this day and age of "consensus top 10-12" running backs being huge questions marks to me, I'll take the guy who has been hands down the #1 overall pick in fantasy leagues for the past three seasons or so. His injury doesn't scare me (although I recommend all A.D. to also draft Toby Gerhart just in case A.D. doesn't play all 16 games).

NOTE: I have the aforementioned five running backs in my top 10 RB rankings. 

- I BELIEVE IN HARVEY DENT. AND PHILIP RIVERS.

I have Phillip Rivers (SD) as my 5th best quarterback only behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Newton. Rivers put up his usual yards and touchdowns in 2011 but the fantasy killer (which also affected his other statistics) was the 20 interceptions he threw. Not only do I expect his 2011 season to be an outlier (because it is) but I believe adding Robert Meachum and the subtraction of Vincent Jackson from the Chargers is a good thing for Rivers. Rivers' best fantasy season was in 2010 when VJax held out most of the year and Rivers was throwing to nobody but scrubs. Plus, Rivers is going super late which means you can get a top five fantasy quarterback dirt cheap. In The Cover 3 fantasy league Philip Rivers went for $9. NINE DOLLARS! That's ridiculously cheap. 

- TIGHT ENDS I BELIEVE IN:

- Rob Gronkowski (NE)

I know the 17 touchdowns is not repeatable but I'm all in on him and if I were in a snake draft there are many situations in which I would take him in the first round of a ten team league. I will die and sink with with ship and believe he will have another monster season in 2012.

- Fred Davis (WAS)

He's always been talented and underrated but always had Chris Cooley there. Cooley's not there anymore and Davis has a legit QB to throw him the ball.

- Jacob Tamme (DEN)

Joel Dressen there does scare me but the last time Tamme had Peyton Manning throwing to him he was an elite TE in fantasy.

-WIDE RECEIVERS I BELIEVE IN:

- Brandon Marshall (CHI)

Call me a Bears homer but I love Marshall this year. While he is on a new team, that fact doesn't scare me because he has proven, great chemistry with Jay Cutler. The guy has the physical tools to catch the short stuff, run routes, and also has the speed the stretch the field. All great attributes in a player and now has a legitimate QB to throw him the ball (no offense Chad Henne and Matt Moore. Oh wait, yes, I do mean to offend).

- Brandon Lloyd (NE)

Call me an Illini homer but Lloyd has always done great things with coordinator/coach Josh McDaniels. Many have cited Lloyd's presence on the Pats as an excuse to downgrade Gronk and Welker. I think Lloyd hurts Aaron Hernandez most of all and I also think Tom Brady is going to put up spectacular and record-breaking numbers (or close to it) this year. ESPN ranks Lloyd as their 17th best receiver. He's in my top 10. 

- Jordy Nelson (GB)

Last year Nelson was ranked 2nd in DYAR (total value) and 1st in DVOA (value per play) according to FootballOutsiders.com. You know the last breakout player to have similar numbers? Mike Wallace. While the touchdowns may not be legitimate (or at least the crazy amount he had) I believe Nelson's talent and fantasy production is.

-Mario Manningham (SF)

I always liked Manningham's talent and route running capabilities and I drafted him very high in 2011 with the departure of Steve Smith from the Giants (as it turns out I was correct in that the WR opposite of Hakeem Nicks would be a fantasy superstar, I just choose the wrong guy). While Super Mario is now on the conservative throwing 49ers I believe his route running skills will translate into fantasy gold in Jim Harbaugh's scheme. ESPN has him as the 43rd ranked wide out. I have him at #30. 

- Reggie Wayne (IND)

Why do I like him? I just do. Probably mainly for the value but I own him in one league and tried to own him in my other (I did not enough money to go to $3 for Wayne in that league. Sad face.). He think he has a Steve Smith (CAR) -esque bounce back year in 2012.

-QUARTERBACKS I LIKE:

- Tim Tebow (NYJ)

While Tebow is not a good real life quarterback his rushing skills and rushing touchdowns make him a great fantasy quarterback. Not only is Mark Sanchez not good at football but the Tebow hype will force the Jets to start Tebow and I think Tebow starts more games than Sanchez does. Tebow is a top ten fantasy QB on a per start basis. 

- Josh Freeman (TB)

It's hard to bang the Josh Freeman drum when he's my 17th ranked QB but I kinda like him this year. Probably only for 2 QBs leagues or if you're desperate for a back up but the one player no one is talking about that I think has the best chance to crack into the top 10 who is going super late in drafts or not being drafted is the Tampa Bay signal caller.

-BACK UP RUNNING BACKS I BELIEVE WILL BE THE STARTER (AND GOOD) BY WEEK 8:

-Mikel LeShoure (DET)

The guy was a great prospect coming out of college but off-the-field issues and injuries have derailed his professional career. While he's suspended for the first two games of the 2012 season his competition is still Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith, and Keiland Williams. Best and Smith are almost mortal locks to have season ending surgery by Week 8 and if Keiland Williams is theonly competition then LeShoure will be given the RB reigns and will not let go.

- Ryan Williams (ARI)

God, I just hate Beanie Wells so damn much. So do the Cardinals. 

- C.J. Spiller (BUF)

Even though Fred Jackson has really done nothing to prove he shouldn't be a 20-25 carry a game back, I just believe in Spiller this year.

-Ronnie Hillman (DEN)

I just don't trust the 31 year old and recent Ray Rice back up Willis McGahee. Also, running backs in a Peyton Manning scheme tend to do very well if they have even a modicum of talent. Just look at Edge James and Jospeh Addai in his rookie year.

-Taiwan Jones (OAK)

I can pencil it in right now that Darren McFadden will miss at least 6 games this year which allows for plenty of carries for his back up. I believe Jones and not Mike Goodson will be the guy based on the information coming out of Raiders camp. 

-RUNNING BACKS IN TIME SHARES I WANT TO OWN:

-Peyton Hillis (KC)

In 2010 both Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones were great fantasy players. I expect the same thing to happen in 2012 where both Chiefs running backs will be great. I have always liked Hillis (expect for last year where he suffered from the Madden Curse) dating back to his days in Denver and I like him again this year. The kid's got skills and will see plenty of carries which is a great recipe for fantasy success.

-Michael Bush (CHI)

See: Forte, Matt in my Negative Edition

-Ben Tate (HOU)

Truthfully I just like Houston's run blocking offensive line and Tate's talent more than I like Tate as a fantasy running back but skills + good O-line + *some* carries and touches makes me warm and fuzzy inside. Although I might have Ben Tate blinders on seeing he only average some odd 7 touches a game when Arian Foster started the game.

-LaGarrette Blount (TB)

I just think the hate has gone too far on Blount and the love of Doug Martin has gone too far as well. Don't get me wrong, I only like Blount for his super late value and for deeper leagues but I kinda like him this year. And yes Doug Martin lovers, there will be a time share in Tampa Bay. 

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Fantasy Football Facts For 2012 (Negative Edition)

I told you so.

It is such a gratifying phrase. It's always nice to be able to say "I told you so" to others and it is always makes you want to punch a person in face whenever it is said to you. This phrase is especially nice to say in the fantasy football (or any fantasy sport) community. Fantasy sports is all about predicting the future and as such there are many calls that we "analysts" get right and many calls we get wrong.

For example, I was huge on Rob Gronkowski last year. When many people (mainly the Fantasy Focus duo) were banging the Aaron Hernandez drum I was solidly riding the Gronkowski bandwagon. However, during that same year, a friend of mine came to me for advice. He had a plethora of running backs and he wanted to trade one of them for a wide receiver. Very, very early on in the season he was offered Carolina's Steve Smith for one of his running backs. I told him he should hold out for better. He did so and was able to snag a better wide out: Tampa Bay's Mike Williams.

Hey, you win some, you lose some.

Well here are a list of facts I firmly believe in so I can say "I told you so" at the end of the year

- CHRIS JOHNSON WILL BE BAD. AGAIN.

Many people have Chris Johnson as their 4th best running back (behind some combination of Ray Rice, Arian Foster, and LeSean McCoy). As one friend said to me, "Would it surprise you if Chris Johnson ran for 1600 yards this season?" to which I replied, "no". He retorted, "Well then, how can you justify you ranking Chris Johnson so low?" I have CJ0K (as Christopher Harris joked) as my 20th ranked running back. The reason for this is because I think he will barely crack the top 20 of running backs this year. Many people are giving Johnson a mulligan for his 2011 season. I am not.

Last year, Chris Johnson was the 16th ranked running back. And he played all 16 games. I could buy that his hold out hurt him for some of his season and since he is fully in camp this year, he'll return to his greatness.  I don't buy it. During the latter half of the Titans schedule they faced many bad rushing defensive teams and most of them gave Johnson trouble (teams included two matches against Indy, Tampa Bay, and Carolina). I could buy and even understand that his lack of conditioning hurt him in the beginning of the year but after 8+ games there is just no excuse.

Running backs generally have a short shelf life in the NFL and I just think Johnson is close to his end (as a huge Chris Johnson fan and as a man that touted him as the #1 overall pick last year it brings me no pleasure to say that). His game is mainly predicated on burst and when that goes, so does any semblance of fantasy (and real life) production. Add to that Tennessee still has a terrible offensive line and I think the days of CJ2K are over.

- THE SAINTS WILL BE BAD WITHOUT SEAN PAYTON.

Many people have the Saints winning the Superbowl. I don't even have them making the playoffs. In fact, I have them third in their division. Sean Payton missed one game last year because a player accidentally broke his leg during a game the week beforehand. That meant that this dominant Saints team would have had to find a way to win against the win-less (at the time), gunning-to-win-the-Andrew-Luck-sweepstakes St. Louis Rams. And on that day David defeated Goliath.

Sure that is just one game but that game speaks volumes to me. I know Drew Brees and the Saints have looked really good during this preseason but when was the last time how a team performed in the preseason equals how they performed during the regular season? Hell, the 0-16 Detroit Lions went 4-0 during that preseason.

Obviously, for fantasy purposes, Drew Brees and the Saints will not produce as well as they did last year during Brees' record breaking run, but I think without Payton as the signal caller this team is in big trouble. I wanted to not rank Brees within my top three quarterbacks (my initial rankings had Vick at #3 with Rodgers at #1 and Brady at #2) but with Vick's injury history, question marks surrounding both Manning brothers, a potential sophomore slump for Cam Newton, a Megatron-less Matthew Stafford (see: below), and Philip Rivers' atrocious 2011 campaign, I had to rank Brees as my #3 ranked quarterback. But I really did not want to.

I ended up with Tom Brady as my QB in both my leagues but I didn't get him or Aaron Rodgers I would have waited to get Phillip Rivers.

- MEGATRON (AND STAFFORD) WILL SUFFER FROM THE MADDEN CURSE.

I ranked Calvin Johnson as my #1 wide out but that's only because I couldn't think of any other wide out to put there. I would have put my man-crush Mike Wallace #1 if he didn't hold out or Roddy White if Julio Jones wasn't there. But even though I ranked him #1 I did not and would not touch him in any of my leagues. I am normally not THIS superstitious but after 12 straight years I would rather stay away and have the Madden Cover Player be good on another team than take on said player and have me suffer from the curse. 

But take the curse out of it and you still have a wide receiver who has had an up and down career with some injury risk. In 2009 he only started 14 games, only got 5 receiving touchdowns and did not crack 1,000 receiving yards. You also have the injury prone Matthew Stafford who really only has one season (last season) under his belt.

Nevertheless, I truly believe believe in the Madden Curse which means I truly believe Megatron will be bad or injury-riddled next season which in turn will lead to an ineffective (rather not *as* effective) Matthew Stafford (if he manages to stay healthy for another 16 games). Stafford's game last year was mainly predicated on throwing it up to Johnson and letting Megatron be the beast he is, fight off defenders, and come down with the ball. But no (or a bad) Calvin Johnson means the Detroit signal caller's statistics will suffer as well. 

- MICHAEL BUSH WILL HURT MATT FORTE'S FANTASY VALUE.

I understand (all too well as a Forte owner last year and as a Bears fan) that scoring touchdowns and short yardage situations are not part of Matt Forte's game. The guy just gets a crazy amount of yards from scrimmage year after year after year. That is why I loved the Marion Barber signing last year. The only game Barber had was converting those 4th and 1 and those red zone touchdowns. But with Barber gone and the Bears needing a hole to fill and new GM Phil Emory being awesome, the Bears signed former Raiders RB and Run DMC back up Michael Bush this offseason. Here's the thing, there are many great parts of Bush's game more than just getting short yardage. He can catch. He can run. And he's just overall really good at football. 

Michael Bush was the 11th ranked running back last year while only starting six games. The guy has legitimate starting running back talent and eventually I believe he will just take carries away from Forte. I don't mean get carries along with Forte but actually take away carries from Forte. As a Bears fan I am completely fine with that but as a fantasy owner (at least for Forte) I am not. In fact, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice has said that he wants two 1,000 yard rushers in 2012. A feat rarely and not easily accomplished. Granted, it is possible for Forte to be a top 7 running back with both Forte and Bush getting over 1,000 rushing yards but I just don't see that happening. Especially not with the addition of Brandon Marshall and an improved Bears passing game.

- INJURY PRONE RUNNING BACKS I JUST DON'T LIKE:
- Darren McFadden (OAK)
- Ryan Matthews (SD)
- Frank Gore (SF)

- STARTING RUNNING BACKS I JUST THINK ARE BAD:
(NOTE: By "bad" I just mean I really do not want to own them on my team)
- Michael Turner (ATL)
- Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
- Beanie Wells (ARI)
- Cedric Benson (GB)
- Shonn Greene (NYJ)
- Willis McGahee (DEN)
- Isaac Redman / Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
- Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
NOTE: The guy's an amazing talent but he has still held out this late into the off season and with Chris Johnson's hold out last year I just don't feel good owning MJD

SIDENOTE: Yeah, I really am not pleased with the running back crop this year. Like, I REALLY don't like or trust most of the NFL's starters

- "TOP TIERED" WIDE OUTS I DON'T TRUST THIS YEAR:

- Andre Johnson (HOU)
- Victor Cruz (NYG)
- Steve Smith (CAR)
- Vincent Jackson (TB)
- Dez Bryant/Miles Austin (DAL)

-BACK UP RUNNING BACKS I DON'T LIKE:

- David Wilson (NYG)

I think Wilson could be solid and effective but I don't think he is anything special and while I don't like Bradshaw I still think Bradshaw is going to get significant carries and two "eh" running backs don't do it for me

- Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL)

Analogous to Wilson, while I do not like Michael Turner I think he will play in every game, he just won't be effective. Rodgers has become a trendy sleeper because there is a lot of hate surrounding Michael Turner but I think Turner will get carries but just will not do much with them which does not bode well for Rodgers. It's hard to get fantasy points when you're not on the field.

- Ronnie Brown (SD)

I believe Brown will start a significant amounts of games because of Ryan Matthews' injury history but I just don't think he will do much with those starts

- Brandon Jacobs (SF)

see: Brown, Ronnie. I believe Kendall Hunter is the Gore back up you want

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