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Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts

Sunday, August 23, 2015

2015 Bad Quarterback League Rankings

As Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is gaining steam and quickly becoming one of the most popular fantasy games you can play, the more obvious it is that traditional fantasy formats will soon go the way of the dodo bird. Personally, I play in five different types of fantasy football leagues, one of which is a traditional fantasy league, one of which is DFS, and one of which is a Bad Quarterback League. A Bad Quarterback League (BQBL) was started by Grantland.com in 2011 and I immediately became hooked. Unfortunately, Grantland recently stopped posting about the league; however, that has never stopped my interest in it. It certainly makes it more difficult to score your league, but the fun makes it worth it.

The first thing you need to do it set up your players and rules. The way my league is set up is that there are five players in the league, and each player must draft, and start, four teams each. That way each team must choose some "sleeper" teams without having to choose from some truly elite teams like the Green Bay Packers or Indianapolis Colts. After 20 teams have been drafted and each player has their four teams, it is time to set up the scoring. We play in a rotisserie style league where we use Grantland's original scoring. We only play through 16 weeks (because playing in Week 17 is terrible for all formats) and the team that has accrued the most points based on the previous individual 16 weeks is the winner.

Saturday, August 30, 2014

10 Tips For Rookie Fantasy Football Auction Drafters

I remember the first auction fantasy draft I competed in. It was about five years ago and it was for fantasy baseball. The Commissioner wanted to do something different and he heard great things from doing auction drafts. I remember bitching and moaning about switching from a snake draft to an auction. I hated it, and I thought I'd do terribly in the format. But then I drafted.

Immediately I loved doing auction drafts. After doing my first auction draft, I imagine I had the same feeling that meth heads get when they first try Crystal Meth. It was euphoric. Since that draft some five years ago, I can't go back to snake drafts. Once you go auction, you never go... back? I need to work on a new catchy phrase, but the point still stands. I love auction drafts. If for some reason you're unlike me and still don't enjoy or are not good at fantasy football auction drafts, follow my 10 Tips for Rookie Fantasy Football Auction Drafters:


Saturday, August 23, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Rankings Update: Late August Edition

Immediately after the NFL draft, I released my initial fantasy football rankings. A few weeks ago, I updated those rankings for my Mid August Update Edition. I am now updating my rankings one more time before the first major draft day weekend. I update my rankings because things change and situations are fluid. My rankings are both a combination of how I personally feel about players as well as how I feel you should be treating these players. For example, I have Marshawn Lynch ranked as my 6th best running back. However, when push comes to shove, I probably won't draft him, but I can't in good conscious move him down in my rankings because he's just that good of a player. These rankings are based upon my post-draft rankings, and any player highlighted in red is a player who has moved down since my mid-August update, and any player highlighted in green is a player who has moved up since my mid-August update. 

QUARTERBACKS

1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Drew Brees (NO)
3) Peyton Manning (DEN)
4) Cam Newton (CAR)
5) Andrew Luck (IND)
6) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
7) Matthew Stafford (DET)
8) Colin Kaepernick (SF)
9) Russell Wilson (SEA)
10) Tom Brady (NE)
11) Tony Romo (DAL)
12) Nick Foles (PHI)
13) Matt Ryan (ATL)
14) Jay Cutler (CHI)
15) Andy Dalton (CIN)
16) Philip Rivers (SD)
17) Johnny Manziel (CLE)
18) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
19) Eli Manning (NYG)
20) Alex Smith (KC)
21) Jake Locker (TEN)
22) Carson Palmer (ARI)
23) Joe Flacco (BAL)
24) Josh McCown (TB)
25) Geno Smith (NYJ)

Friday, August 15, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts

Personally, I am not a big fan of the terms "sleeper" and "bust". I think there's a certain connotation to those terms that the every day fantasy football players misconstrues. I prefer the term "undervalued" and "overvalued". Every football player has value, and good drafting comes down to knowing where that values lies. You may personally have a distrust for Arian Foster or Doug Martin or DeMarco Murray, but if these players are sitting in the 4th round of your 16 team draft, you would pick them up immediately. If, however, you have the 6th pick in your draft, the value may not be there for you for any of those players. But that being said, The Internet loves the terms "sleepers" and "busts" so those are the terms I will be using throughout this post. Here is my personal list of players who I think are undervalued (aka "sleepers") and are overvalued (aka "busts") as well as players I overall love and kind of hate:

QUARTERBACKS

SLEEPERS

Robert Griffin III (WAS)

Truthfully, RG3 is probably appropriately valued. Both ESPN and Yahoo! have the Washington QB ranked as the 7th best QB, and he's 6th on my personal board. However, I just want to go on record to say that I absolutely love Robert Griffin the Third this year. While you may think he's a "mobile" quarterback because he's run before and because he's Black (you racist), but he's actually a really good passer and just a sub-par runner (That's why he's always getting hurt). RG3 now has Jay Gruden has his head coach. Gruden is not only responsible for making Andy Dalton a top 5 fantasy QB in 2013, but he's stated that there will be very few designed runs for his quarterback. A lot of people might be weary of RG3 this year because he's coming off of an atrocious 2013 campaign; however, Griffin was the 5th best fantasy QB in 2012 and all reports say he's fully healthy this year whereas he was obviously hurt last year. Gruden is going to throw, throw, throw and Griffin has one of the best receiving corps in the game with Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed. I think RG3 is going to be a beast in 2013.


Andrew Luck (IND)

A man who is ranked behind RG3 according to some sites (Yahoo!) is a man who I personally have ranked as the 5th best quarterback this year- ahead of the man who went 2nd to him in the 2012 draft. From a real life perspective, I think Luck is a special, special talent. He's probably the 2nd or 3rd best QB prospect of all time behind John Elway and maybe Peyton Manning, and he'll only be 25 coming into the 2014 season. I just think Andrew Luck is going to get better and better as he gets further into his NFL career. ESPN's Numbers Never Lie did a great segment about why Andrew Luck is going to take a huge leap forward this year. From a fantasy perspective, Andrew Luck was the 9th best fantasy QB in 2012 and the 5th best fantasy QB in 2013- and I think he's only going to get better. 


Johnny Manziel (CLE)

I absolutely need to clarify my position on Johnny Football. I currently have Manziel ranked as my 16th best QB behind Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, and Andy Dalton. While recent history suggests QBs drafted in the first round like the aforementioned RG3 and Andrew Luck can be great fantasy football players, I don't truly believe Manziel will be in that class- at least not yet. I personally didn't like the pre-draft scouting reports I saw on him, and he is not having a very good training camp so far. However, the reason I have Manziel on the "sleepers" list is because I think he is a must-own if you decide to be the last person to take a QB in a 12 team league or deeper. Personally, I'm going to be one of the first people in my league to draft a quarterback, but if you are not going with this strategy, you need to draft a handful of QBs- one of which needs to be Manziel. The non-zero chance that Manziel becomes a top 10 or even a top 5 fantasy QB means he needs to be one of the players you take a chance on assuming he hits. I think if you draft Manziel, Jay Cutler, and 3rd QB of your choosing in a deep league, at least one of them will be fantasy stud for you.

BUSTS

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Initial 2014 Bad Quarterback League Rankings

There are so many versions of fantasy football that you can play. There's the normal fantasy football that everyone knows and loves, there are three team leagues, there are eliminator challenges, and the list goes on and on. However, probably my favorite version of fantasy is doing a Bad Quarterback League. Grantland.com gave this format its inception, and as I far as I know, they are the only website that will give you weekly scoring for free (Grantland also has a format where you can play your BQBL for free, but I wouldn't recommend it. Personally, I find tallying each members score by hand the best method. While it can be a bit time consuming, it's also free, easy, and efficient.) Click here to see the full scoring, and how to specifically set up a league.

I have found that what really wins you this league and what you really want are two things: 1) turnovers and 2) mid-game, non-injury QB changes. However, what you really want to target is just terrible performing quarterbacks. Because Grantland is also half pop culture, there are some "fun" categories like "Penis Picture on Blog" and "Arrested", but I don't think any quarterbacks have gotten these points since the league began. Because of what I call these "scandal points", Cam Newton was drafted during his rookie year. As you know, Cam Newton was a monster on the playing field and was terrible in this format. While it may be fun to take quarterbacks who you think will be a nuisance off of the field, they are essentially useless for your league. I highly recommend just targeting overall bad quarterback play. So with that being said, here is my Bad Quarterback League rankings:

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Rankings Update: Mid August Edition

Immediately after the NFL draft, I released my initial fantasy football rankings. Of course, things change, situations are fluid, and my rankings need to be updated. My rankings are both a combination of how I personally feel about players as well as how I feel you should be treating these players. For example, I have Arian Foster ranked as my 6th best running back. However, when push comes to shove, I probably won't draft him, but I can't in good conscious move him down in my rankings because he's just that good of a player. These rankings are based upon my post-draft rankings, and any player highlighted in red is a player who has moved down since my post-draft rankings, and any player highlighted in green is a player who has moved up since my post-draft rankings. 

QUARTERBACKS

1) Peyton Manning (DEN)
2) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
3) Drew Brees (NO)
4) Cam Newton (CAR)
5) Andrew Luck (IND)
6) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
7) Matthew Stafford (DET)
8) Colin Kaepernick (SF)
9) Russell Wilson (SEA)
10) Tom Brady (NE)
11) Nick Foles (PHI)
12) Matt Ryan (ATL)
13) Andy Dalton (CIN)
14) Philip Rivers (SD)
15) Jay Cutler (CHI)
16) Tony Romo (DAL)
17) Johnny Manziel (CLE)
18) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
19) Eli Manning (NYG)
20) Alex Smith (KC)
21) Jake Locker (TEN)
22) Carson Palmer (ARI)
23) Joe Flacco (BAL)
24) Josh McCown (TB)
25) Geno Smith (NYJ)

Thursday, July 17, 2014

The Overrated Dez Bryant

People's love for Dez Bryant is just astounding to me. My friends can't stop raving about him. Yahoo! has Bryant ranked as the 3rd best wide receiver over both Chicago guys and A.J. Green. ESPN is a little better and has Bryant ranked 4th. Even still, Bryant at best needs to be 5th maximum. So for all of my Dez Bryant bashing  that I'm going to do in this post, I still have him as a top wide receiver, but he needs to be lower in both people's Wide Receiver and ADP ranks.

I think everyone can agree that Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas needs to be ahead of Dez Bryant. Megatron is the consensus #1 wide out because he's the best wide receiver in the game and Thomas has just been so consistent over the past two years while playing in the best system in the league. But the next few wide receivers is where it gets dicey.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Why Every Fantasy Football Player Needs To Join A 3 Team League

A few years ago, myself and two of my friends were driving down to Bourbonnais, IL to see the Chicago Bears at training camp. One of my friends mentioned that he joined a three team fantasy football team at work and he wanted our advice. After the laughing subsided, we inquired further as to what our friend was doing joining a league that only had two other members in it. At least the fantasy football league in The League has EIGHT members in it! Our friend stated that some of his co-workers wanted to join a fantasy football league at work, but he couldn't find enough co-workers to start an actual league, so they started a three-team league. Instead of drafting individual players, a manager would draft an entire team, and said manager could play any player from the team he had drafted. So if you drafted the Denver Broncos, you could start Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Montee Ball, Emmanuel Sanders, Julius Thomas, Matt Prater, and Denver's DST.

Even though our initial reaction was that of disdain, we could not stop discussing this three team league the entire car ride to Bourbannais. We discussed strategy and which particular teams are good and which are not. By the time the car had arrived at Bears training camp, the entire car wanted to do our own three team league. So while myself and my two friends were waiting to get into the facilities, we conducted our own three team league draft.

Cut to Saturday night, I was out at a bar with the friend who originally told us about this three-team league idea (his name is Irwin and you can follow him on Twitter @irwinweiner) and another football fanatic friend named Ben (you can follow him on Twitter @bennieb33) and this notion of a three team league came out. And wouldn't you know it, we all loved the idea so much that we decided to conduct our league again this year. And trust me, you're going to want to start your own league as well.

Monday, June 9, 2014

The Curious Case of Doug Martin

Personally, one of the hardest running backs to rank for the upcoming 2014 season is Doug Martin. I imagine if you do your own personal rankings (which all fantasy football players should), he will be hard to rank for you as well. Martin ended his 2012 rookie campaign scoring the most points out of any running back not named Adrian Peterson. However, about 18% of his total fantasy value in 2012 came off of one game- which he scored 51 points. Then came 2013, which was marred by injury early on and a lack of productivity when he was healthy. In 5 full games in 2013, he only had 1 TD and one game of rushing for over 100 yards. So will the real Doug Martin please stand up?

In this article I'd like to just address the points I've been hearing about Doug Martin. I don't know that there will be a clear answer on where you should rank Doug Martin, because I think at the end of the day, there's just too small of a sample size to truly accurately predict how Doug Martin will perform in 2014.

Monday, May 12, 2014

2014 Post-NFL Draft Fantasy Football Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Peyton Manning (DEN)
3) Drew Brees (NO)
4) Cam Newton (CAR)
5) Andrew Luck (IND)
6) Matthew Stafford (DET)
7) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
8) Tom Brady (NE)
9) Colin Kaepernick (SF)
10) Russell Wilson (SEA)
11) Nick Foles (PHI)
12) Matt Ryan (ATL)
13) Andy Dalton (CIN)
14) Philip Rivers (SD)
15) Jay Cutler (CHI)
16) Tony Romo (DAL)
17) Johnny Manziel (CLE)
18) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
19) Eli Manning (NYG)
20) Alex Smith (KC)
21) Jake Locker (TEN)
22) Carson Palmer (ARI)
23) Joe Flacco (BAL)
24) Josh McCown (TB)
25) Blake Bortles (JAX)

Friday, May 9, 2014

Fantasy Impact of the NFL Draft First Round

The first round of the NFL's first round of its amateur draft is done and in the books. In theory, every team (who drafted, which was not all of them) improved their real life team. But an improvement in a real life team doesn't necessarily impact a fantasy team. Here are some fantasy impacts of the NFL Draft first round:

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

2014 Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Football Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

1) Peyton Manning (DEN)
2) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
3) Drew Brees (NO)
4) Andrew Luck (IND)
5) Cam Newton (CAR)
6) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
7) Matthew Stafford (DET)
8) Tom Brady (NE)
9) Colin Kaepernick (SF)
10) Russell Wilson (SEA)
11) Nick Foles (PHI)
12) Matt Ryan (ATL)
13) Andy Dalton (CIN)
14) Philip Rivers (SD)
15) Jay Cutler (CHI)
16) Tony Romo (DAL)
17) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
18) Matt Schaub (OAK)
19) Eli Manning (NYG)
20) Alex Smith (KC)
21) Jake Locker (TEN)
22) Ryan Tannehill (MIA)
23) Carson Palmer (ARI)
24) Joe Flacco (BAL)
25) Josh McCown (TB)


RUNNING BACKS

1) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2) Jamaal Charles (KC)
3) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
4) Marshawn Lynch (SEA)
5) Matt Forte (CHI)
6) Eddie Lacy (GB)
7) Reggie Bush (DET)
8) Arian Foster (HOU)
9) Zac Stacy (STL)
10) Montee Ball (DEN)
11) Doug Martin (TB)
12) Alfred Morris (WAS)
13) Le'Veon Bell (PIT)
14) Frank Gore (SF)
15) Giovani Bernard (CIN)
16) Shane Vereen (NE)
17) Rashad Jennings (NYG)
18) DeMarco Murray (DAL)
19) Ben Tate (CLE)
20) Fred Jackson (BUF)
21) C.J. Spiller (BUF)
22) Andre Ellington (ARI)
23) Maurice Jones-Drew (OAK)
24) Knowshon Moreno (MIA)
25) Steven Jackson (ATL)
26) Toby Gerhart (JAX)
27) Shonn Greene (TEN)
28) Ryan Mathews (SD)
29) Joique Bell (DET)
30) Chris Johnson (NYJ) 
31) Ray Rice (BAL)
32) Trent Richardson (IND)
33) Pierre Thomas (NO)
34) DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
35) Chris Ivory (NYJ)
36) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)
37) Darren Sproles (PHI)
38) Andre Brown (HOU)
39) Stevan Ridley (NE)
40) Danny Woodhead (SD)
41) Bernard Pierce (BAL)
42) Darren McFadden (OAK)
43) Lamar Miller (MIA)
44) Mark Ingram (NO)
45) Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
46) Bilal Powell (NYJ)
47) Donald Brown (SD)
48) LaGarrette Blount (PIT)
49) Dexter McCluster (TEN)
50) C.J. Anderson (DEN)


Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Toby Gerhart's Fantasy Value For 2014

On March 12, 2014, former Minnesota Vikings running back signed a 3 year deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars. As of right now, Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars starting RB for the past few years, is an unrestricted free agent, and has not signed anywhere. It's certainly possible Jones-Drew resigns with Jacksonville, but I think it's pretty unlikely. It's also possible that Jacksonville drafts a running back or signs another RB in free agency, but let's assume that Gerhart ends up being the starting running back for the 2014 Jacksonville Jaguars. How is he likely to fare?

Well, let's first look at Toby Gerhart himself. I think he comes with the pedigree. He's 6 foot, 234 lbs. He was a great running back in Stanford. He ultimately lost the Heisman vote back in 2009 to Alabama's Mark Ingram, even though he led the NCAA that year in rushing yards and rushing TDs. I remember thinking at the time that Gerhart should have won the Heisman, and I personally suspected racial bias against Gerhart (but that's just speculation). He was then drafted in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft to the Minnesota Vikings.

Gerhart spent 4 years as a Minnesota Viking, mostly playing back up to the greatest RB of this generation- Adrian Peterson. In his limited time, Gerhart has a career 4.7 YPC. He also has decent hands catching 77 passes in his career. Gerhart has started 6 games in his career, one in 2010, and 5 in 2011. In the five games Gerhart started in 2011, he got 83 carries for 401 yards. That's good for a 4.831 YPC- basically the same as his career YPC.

I think it's safe to assume that Gerhart is a 4.7 YPC guy.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

My Bad Quarterback Leagues

You can read exactly what a Bad Quarterback League (as created by Grantland.com) here and you can see my Bad Quarterback rankings here. But this post is not about that. This post is merely to proclaim to the world the two BQBL that I am in.

LEAGUE #1: The Original Bad Quarterback League

This is a 7 person league where you start two quarterbacks each week, bench two, yet you will still be able to get 24/7 points whether or not you started the quarterback's team. 5 of the 7 teams competed in this BQBL last year. This league does NOT allow for trading or add/drops. Here is how the draft went (and for the sake of privacy I will not disclose the team's last names)

DMITRY:
1) Washington Redskins
14) Indianapolis Colts
15) Denver Broncos
28) San Diego Chargers

JIM:
2) Arizona Cardinals
13) Dallas Cowboys
16) Baltimore Ravens
27) Carolina Panthers

MY TEAM:
3) New York Jets
12) Kansas City Chiefs
17) Cincinnati Bengals
26) New Orleans Saints

STEVEN:
4) Miami Dolphins
11) Tennessee Titans
18) Philadelphia Eagles
25) Detroit Lions

DANIEL:
5) Cleveland Browns
10) Seattle Seahawks
19) Buffalo Bills
24) Pittsburgh Steelers

WARREN:
6) Jacksonville Jaguars
9) Oakland Raiders
20) New York Giants
23) Houston Texans

IRWIN:
7) Minnesota Vikings
8) St. Louis Rams
21) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22) San Fransisco 49ers

Undrafted Teams:
- New England Patriots
- Green Bay Packers
- Chicago Bears
- Atlanta Falcons


MY REACTION TO THIS LEAGUE:
- For starters, I couldn't believe that the Washington Redskins went first overall. I know Rex Grossman and John Beck were atrocious last year but come on, this is RG3! The Redskins didn't go until pick 12 in my five team league and not until pick 14 in Grantland's BQBL. I feel like we needed Matthew Berry's rankings in front of us
- I really wish I had taken a 24/7 team with one of my picks. I should have gone Philly in the 3rd round and they went right after I picked Cincy. I just wished Denver had somehow fallen to me.
- I can't believe how far the Cleveland Browns fell
- I'm shocked the Bears didn't get drafted in this deep of a league. Plus, it's not even *that* full of Chicago homers and last year when I had to start 4 teams *I* drafted the Bears with my last pick. I guess Jason Campbell is just that good.

 LEAGUE #2: The Newbie League

This is a five person league I created when I posted on Facebook if anyone would like to join a BQBL with me. In this league you MUST start all four teams but we do allow for add/drops. We do not allow for trading. Here is how the draft went:

BEN:
1) Jacksonville Jaguars
10) Minnesota Vikings
11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20) Carolina Panthers

BRYAN:
2) Arizona Cardinals
9) Seattle Seahawks
12) Washington Redskins
19) San Francisco 49ers

CAHAL:
3) New York Jets
8) Tennessee Titans
13) Chicago Bears
18) Philadelphia Eagles

COLLEEN:
4) Cleveland Browns
6) Oakland Raiders
14) Buffalo Bills
17) Baltimore Ravens

MY TEAM:
5) Miami Dolphins
6) St. Louis Rams
15) Kansas City Chiefs
16) Cincinnati Bengals


MY REACTION TO THIS LEAGUE:
- Like in my other league, the Arizona Cardinals went second overall. Both league drafted after the news that John Skelton was named the starter. I'm not saying Skelton is good, not in the slightest (although he is apparently the only competent person since Kurt Warner who can get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald) but I think there are far worse QBs out there. Or I could just be flat out wrong about this.
- My fiance picked one spot ahead of me and picked solely based on uniforms. Stupid effing Browns for having awful uniforms to go along with their awful franchise and their awful quarterback.
- In a 7 team league where you only start two of your four QBs there Chicago Bears were not selected but in a 5 team league where you MUST start all four they were.
- When I created and posted my own rankings I had the Vikings at #6 and the Rams at #5 so when the wrap around came to me I chose the Rams. Immediately after I typed in "Rams" over 'Vikings" I regretted it and have since swapped the two teams in my rankings.
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Saturday, September 1, 2012

Preseason Quarterbacks Rankings

1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Tom Brady (NE)
3) Drew Brees (NO)
4) Cam Newton (CAR)
5) Philip Rivers (SD)
6) Eli Manning (NYG)
7) Matthew Stafford (DET)
8) Michael Vick (PHI)
9) Peyton Manning (DEN)
10) Tony Romo (DAL)
11) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
12) Matt Ryan (ATL)
13) Tim Tebow (NYJ)
14) Jay Cutler (CHI)
15) Matt Schaub (HOU)
16) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
17) Josh Freeman (TB)
18) Carson Palmer (OAK)
19) Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF)
20) Andy Dalton (CIN)

NOTE: This is my ranking for a ten team league. The deeper the league, the more I will drop Tim Tebow. I think he is a back up but a great back up to have. But I do not want to go in to a league with Tebow as my starter
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Friday, August 31, 2012

Preseason Running Back Rankings

Non-PPR Leagues

1) Arian Foster (HOU)
2) Ray Rice (BAL)
3) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
4) Jamaal Charles (KC)
5) Fred Jackson (BUF)
6) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)
7) Steven Jackson (STL)
8) Darren Sproles (NO)
9) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
10) DeMarco Murray (DAL)
11) Matt Forte (CHI)
12) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
13) Ryan Mathews (SD)
14) Darren McFadden (OAK)
15) Trent Richardson (CLE)
16) Reggie Bush (MIA)
17) Chris Johnson (TEN)
18) Michael Turner (ATL)
19) Frank Gore (SF)
20) Doug Martin (TB)
21) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
22) Peyton Hillis (KC)
23) Donald Brown (IND)
24) Willis McGahee (BUF)
25) Shonn Greene (NYJ)
26) Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
27) Mikel LeShoure (DET)
28) Michael Bush (CHI)
29) Ben Tate (HOU)
30) Cedric Benson (GB)
31) Ryan Williams (ARI)
32) Rashad Jennings (JAX)
33) Toby Gerhart (MIN)
34) Beanie Wells (ARI)
35) DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
36) Mark Ingram (NO)
37) David Wilson (NYG)
38) Robert Turbin (SEA)
39) Ronnie Hillman (DEN)
40) Roy Helu (WAS)
41) Taiwan Jones (OAK)
42) Kendall Hunter (SF)
43) LaGarette Blount (TB)
44) Daniel Thomas (MIA)
45) Ronnie Brown (SD)
46) Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL)
47) Mike Goodson (OAK)
48) Alex Green (GB)
49) Evan Royster (WAS)
50) Shane Vereen (NE)

PPR Leagues

1) Arian Foster (HOU)
2) Ray Rice (BAL)
3) LeSean McCoy (PHI)
4) Darren Sproles (NO)
5) Jamaal Charles (KC)
6) Fred Jackson (BUF)
7) Steven Jackson (STL)
8) BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)
9) Matt Forte (CHI)
10) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
11) DeMarco Murray (DAL)
12) Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
13) Ryan Mathews (SD)
14) Darren McFadden (OAK)
15) Reggie Bush (MIA)
16) Trent Richardson (CLE)
17) Chris Johnson (TEN)
18) Michael Turner (ATL)
19) Frank Gore (SF)
20) Doug Martin (TB)
21) Peyton Hillis (KC)
22) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
23) Donald Brown (IND)
24) Willis McGahee (DEN)
25) Shonn Greene (NYJ)
26) Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
27) Mikel LeShoure (DET)
28) Michael Bush (CHI)
29) Ben Tate (HOU)
30) Cedric Benson (GB)
31) Ryan Williams (ARI)
32) Rashad Jennings (JAX)
33) Toby Gerhart (MIN)
34) Beanie Wells (ARI)
35) DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
36) Mark Ingram (NO)
37) David Wilson (NYG)
38) Robert Turbin (SEA)
39) Ronnie Hillman (DEN)
40) Roy Helu (WAS)
41) Taiwan Jones (OAK)
42) Kendall Hunter (SF)
43) LaGarette Blount (TB)
44) Daniel Thomas (MIA)
45) Ronnie Brown (SD)
46) Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL)
47) Mike Goodson (OAK)
48) Alex Green (GB)
49) Evan Royster (WAS)
50) Shane Vereen (NE)

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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Preseason Wide Receiver Rankings

Non-PPR Leagues

1) Calvin Johnson (DET)
2) Wes Welker (NE)
3) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
4) Roddy White (ATL)
5) Brandon Marshall (CHI)
6) Greg Jennings (GB)
7) A.J. Green (CIN)
8) Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
9) Brandon Lloyd (NE)
10) Jordy Nelson (GB)
12) Mike Wallace (PIT)
13) Julio Jones (ATL)
14) Percy Harvin (MIN)
15) Marques Colston (NO)
16) Victor Cruz (NYG)
17) Andre Johnson (HOU)
18) Dez Bryant (DAL)
19) Miles Austin (DAL)
20) Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
21) Steve Smith (CAR)
22) Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
23) Antonio Brown (PIT)
24) Dewayne Bowe (KC)
25) Stevie Johnson (BUF)
26) Vincent Jackson (TAM)
27) Kenny Britt (TEN)
27) Malcolm Floyd (SD)
28) DeSean Jackson (PHI)
29) Reggie Wayne (IND)
30) Torrey Smith (BAL)
31) Mario Manningham (SF)
32) Eric Decker (DEN)
33) Pierre Garcon (WAS)
34) Santonio Holmes (NYJ)
35) Michael Crabtree (SF)
36) Laurent Robinson (JAX)
37) Lance Moore (NO)
38) Austin Collie (IND)
39) Robert Meachum (SD)
40) Darrius Heyword-Bey (OAK)
41) Denarius Moore (OAK)
42) Anquan Boldin (BAL)
43) Kendall Wright (TEN)
44) Devery Henderson (NO)
45) Nate Washington (TEN)
46) Justin Blackmon (JAX)
47) Greg Little (CLE)
48) Mike Williams (TAM)
49) Sidney Rice (SEA)
50) Randy Moss (SF)

PPR Leagues

1) Wes Welker (NE)
2) Calvin Johnson (DET)
3) Roddy White (ATL)
4) Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
5) Brandon Marshall (CHI)
6) Greg Jennings (GB)
7) A.J. Green (CIN)
8) Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
9) Jordy Nelson (GB)
10) Mike Wallace (PIT)
11) Brandon Lloyd (NE)
12) Percy Harvin (MIN)
13) Marques Colston (NO)
14) Julio Jones (ATL)
15) Andre Johnson (HOU)
16) Victor Cruz (NYG)
17) Dez Bryant (DAL)
18) Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
19) Miles Austin (DAL)
20) Eric Decker (DEN)
21) Antonio Brown (PIT)
22) Steve Smith (CAR)
23) Dewayne Bowe (KC)
24) Stevie Johnson (BUF)
25) Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
26) Vincent Jackson (TAM)
27) Kenny Britt (TEN)
28) Malcolm Floyd (SD)
29) DeSean Jackson (PHI)
30) Mario Manningham (SF)
31) Reggie Wayne (IND)
32) Torrey Smith (BAL)
33) Pierre Garcon (WAS)
34) Santonio Holmes (NYJ)
35) Michael Crabtree (SF)
36) Laurent Robinson (JAX)
37) Davone Bess (MIA)
38) Lance Moore (NO)
39) Robert Meachum (SD)
40) Austin Collie (IND)
41) Darrius Heyword-Bey (OAK)
42) Denarius Moore (OAK)
43) Greg Little (CLE)
44) Anquan Boldin (BAL)
45) Kendall Wright (TEN)
46) Devery Henderson (NO)
47) Nate Washington (TEN)
48) Justin Blackmon (JAX)
49) Sidney Rice (SEA)
50) Randy Moss (SF)
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Preseason Tight End Rankings

Ten Team League

1) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
2) Jimmy Graham (NO)
3) Antonio Gates (SD)
4) Vernon Davis (SF)
5) Fred Davis (WAS)
6) Jermichael Finley (GB)
7) Aaron Hernandez (NE)
8) Jason Witten (DAL)
9) Jacob Tamme (DEN)
10) Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
11) Jared Cook (TEN)
12) Owen Daniels (HOU)
13) Greg Olson (CAR)
14) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
15) Coby Fleener (IND)

Twelve Team League

1) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
2) Jimmy Graham (NO)
3) Antonio Gates (SD)
4) Vernon Davis (SF)
5) Fred Davis (WAS)
6) Jermichael Finley (GB)
7) Aaron Hernandez (NE)
8) Jason Witten (DAL)
9) Jacob Tamme (DEN)
10) Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
11) Greg Olson (CAR)
12) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
13) Jered Cook (TEN)
14) Owen Daniels (HOU)
15) Coby Fleener (IND)

PPR League

1) Jimmy Graham (NO)
2) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
3) Antonio Gates (SD)
4) Jermichael Finley (GB)
5) Fred Davis (WAS)
6) Aaron Hernandez ( NE)
7) Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
8) Vernon Davis (SF)
9) Jason Witten (DAL)
10) Greg Olson (CAR)
11) Jacob Tamme (DEN)
12) Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
13) Jered Cook (TEN)
14) Owen Daniels (HOU)
15) Coby Fleener (IND)
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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Fantasy Football Facts For 2012 (Positive Edition)

The post prior and the post below this one is a list of facts about all the bad things regarding football players and the overvaluing of players. But I hate to be a Debbie Downer. Plus, you need to be able to draft SOME players for your team. So here is a list of the players I like and would want to own (or do own) on my fantasy teams.

- RUNNING BACKS I BELIEVE IN:

I hate the running backs class this year. I feel like in this year more than any other year there are two many questions marks surrounding the top 25 in the class of backs. On my hate list I included: Ryan Matthews, Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, Willis McGahee, and Shonn Greene. That's 9 out of the top 25 ranked running backs according to ESPN. Take out the consensus big three (Foster, Rice, and McCoy) and that only leaves you with 13 (or little over half) of the rest of the "top tiered talent" to choose from. Here are some steady guys I like:

- BenJarvis Green-Ellis (CIN)

In 2010 The Law Firm got over 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns for the Patriots while only starting 10 games. Imagine what he can do while starting 16 as The Guy for a team (the Cincinnati Bengals) that made Cedric Benson look good.

- Darren Sproles (NO)

Especially more for PPR and 1/2 PPR league. Sporles was a top ten fantasy back in PPR leagues in 2011.

- Steven Jackson (STL)

The guy is just rock solid, has only missed two games within the last three years, plays for a very run heavy coach in Jeff Fischer and the safety, to me, is worth the risk versus guys like Ryan Matthews and Darren McFadden. 

               - INJURY PRONE RUNNING BACKS I LIKE:

- Jamaal Charles (KC)

The guy was a top 2 talent in fantasy only two years ago. There is no reason he shouldn't revert back to form. While all injury experts say he won't be the same player early on in the year (so maybe you can take a Rashad Jennings to help even the work load) I think he'll be money in the bank come playoff time.

- Adrian Peterson (MIN)

A.D. is just a physical beast and in this day and age of "consensus top 10-12" running backs being huge questions marks to me, I'll take the guy who has been hands down the #1 overall pick in fantasy leagues for the past three seasons or so. His injury doesn't scare me (although I recommend all A.D. to also draft Toby Gerhart just in case A.D. doesn't play all 16 games).

NOTE: I have the aforementioned five running backs in my top 10 RB rankings. 

- I BELIEVE IN HARVEY DENT. AND PHILIP RIVERS.

I have Phillip Rivers (SD) as my 5th best quarterback only behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Newton. Rivers put up his usual yards and touchdowns in 2011 but the fantasy killer (which also affected his other statistics) was the 20 interceptions he threw. Not only do I expect his 2011 season to be an outlier (because it is) but I believe adding Robert Meachum and the subtraction of Vincent Jackson from the Chargers is a good thing for Rivers. Rivers' best fantasy season was in 2010 when VJax held out most of the year and Rivers was throwing to nobody but scrubs. Plus, Rivers is going super late which means you can get a top five fantasy quarterback dirt cheap. In The Cover 3 fantasy league Philip Rivers went for $9. NINE DOLLARS! That's ridiculously cheap. 

- TIGHT ENDS I BELIEVE IN:

- Rob Gronkowski (NE)

I know the 17 touchdowns is not repeatable but I'm all in on him and if I were in a snake draft there are many situations in which I would take him in the first round of a ten team league. I will die and sink with with ship and believe he will have another monster season in 2012.

- Fred Davis (WAS)

He's always been talented and underrated but always had Chris Cooley there. Cooley's not there anymore and Davis has a legit QB to throw him the ball.

- Jacob Tamme (DEN)

Joel Dressen there does scare me but the last time Tamme had Peyton Manning throwing to him he was an elite TE in fantasy.

-WIDE RECEIVERS I BELIEVE IN:

- Brandon Marshall (CHI)

Call me a Bears homer but I love Marshall this year. While he is on a new team, that fact doesn't scare me because he has proven, great chemistry with Jay Cutler. The guy has the physical tools to catch the short stuff, run routes, and also has the speed the stretch the field. All great attributes in a player and now has a legitimate QB to throw him the ball (no offense Chad Henne and Matt Moore. Oh wait, yes, I do mean to offend).

- Brandon Lloyd (NE)

Call me an Illini homer but Lloyd has always done great things with coordinator/coach Josh McDaniels. Many have cited Lloyd's presence on the Pats as an excuse to downgrade Gronk and Welker. I think Lloyd hurts Aaron Hernandez most of all and I also think Tom Brady is going to put up spectacular and record-breaking numbers (or close to it) this year. ESPN ranks Lloyd as their 17th best receiver. He's in my top 10. 

- Jordy Nelson (GB)

Last year Nelson was ranked 2nd in DYAR (total value) and 1st in DVOA (value per play) according to FootballOutsiders.com. You know the last breakout player to have similar numbers? Mike Wallace. While the touchdowns may not be legitimate (or at least the crazy amount he had) I believe Nelson's talent and fantasy production is.

-Mario Manningham (SF)

I always liked Manningham's talent and route running capabilities and I drafted him very high in 2011 with the departure of Steve Smith from the Giants (as it turns out I was correct in that the WR opposite of Hakeem Nicks would be a fantasy superstar, I just choose the wrong guy). While Super Mario is now on the conservative throwing 49ers I believe his route running skills will translate into fantasy gold in Jim Harbaugh's scheme. ESPN has him as the 43rd ranked wide out. I have him at #30. 

- Reggie Wayne (IND)

Why do I like him? I just do. Probably mainly for the value but I own him in one league and tried to own him in my other (I did not enough money to go to $3 for Wayne in that league. Sad face.). He think he has a Steve Smith (CAR) -esque bounce back year in 2012.

-QUARTERBACKS I LIKE:

- Tim Tebow (NYJ)

While Tebow is not a good real life quarterback his rushing skills and rushing touchdowns make him a great fantasy quarterback. Not only is Mark Sanchez not good at football but the Tebow hype will force the Jets to start Tebow and I think Tebow starts more games than Sanchez does. Tebow is a top ten fantasy QB on a per start basis. 

- Josh Freeman (TB)

It's hard to bang the Josh Freeman drum when he's my 17th ranked QB but I kinda like him this year. Probably only for 2 QBs leagues or if you're desperate for a back up but the one player no one is talking about that I think has the best chance to crack into the top 10 who is going super late in drafts or not being drafted is the Tampa Bay signal caller.

-BACK UP RUNNING BACKS I BELIEVE WILL BE THE STARTER (AND GOOD) BY WEEK 8:

-Mikel LeShoure (DET)

The guy was a great prospect coming out of college but off-the-field issues and injuries have derailed his professional career. While he's suspended for the first two games of the 2012 season his competition is still Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith, and Keiland Williams. Best and Smith are almost mortal locks to have season ending surgery by Week 8 and if Keiland Williams is theonly competition then LeShoure will be given the RB reigns and will not let go.

- Ryan Williams (ARI)

God, I just hate Beanie Wells so damn much. So do the Cardinals. 

- C.J. Spiller (BUF)

Even though Fred Jackson has really done nothing to prove he shouldn't be a 20-25 carry a game back, I just believe in Spiller this year.

-Ronnie Hillman (DEN)

I just don't trust the 31 year old and recent Ray Rice back up Willis McGahee. Also, running backs in a Peyton Manning scheme tend to do very well if they have even a modicum of talent. Just look at Edge James and Jospeh Addai in his rookie year.

-Taiwan Jones (OAK)

I can pencil it in right now that Darren McFadden will miss at least 6 games this year which allows for plenty of carries for his back up. I believe Jones and not Mike Goodson will be the guy based on the information coming out of Raiders camp. 

-RUNNING BACKS IN TIME SHARES I WANT TO OWN:

-Peyton Hillis (KC)

In 2010 both Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones were great fantasy players. I expect the same thing to happen in 2012 where both Chiefs running backs will be great. I have always liked Hillis (expect for last year where he suffered from the Madden Curse) dating back to his days in Denver and I like him again this year. The kid's got skills and will see plenty of carries which is a great recipe for fantasy success.

-Michael Bush (CHI)

See: Forte, Matt in my Negative Edition

-Ben Tate (HOU)

Truthfully I just like Houston's run blocking offensive line and Tate's talent more than I like Tate as a fantasy running back but skills + good O-line + *some* carries and touches makes me warm and fuzzy inside. Although I might have Ben Tate blinders on seeing he only average some odd 7 touches a game when Arian Foster started the game.

-LaGarrette Blount (TB)

I just think the hate has gone too far on Blount and the love of Doug Martin has gone too far as well. Don't get me wrong, I only like Blount for his super late value and for deeper leagues but I kinda like him this year. And yes Doug Martin lovers, there will be a time share in Tampa Bay. 

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Monday, August 27, 2012

Fantasy Football Facts For 2012 (Negative Edition)

I told you so.

It is such a gratifying phrase. It's always nice to be able to say "I told you so" to others and it is always makes you want to punch a person in face whenever it is said to you. This phrase is especially nice to say in the fantasy football (or any fantasy sport) community. Fantasy sports is all about predicting the future and as such there are many calls that we "analysts" get right and many calls we get wrong.

For example, I was huge on Rob Gronkowski last year. When many people (mainly the Fantasy Focus duo) were banging the Aaron Hernandez drum I was solidly riding the Gronkowski bandwagon. However, during that same year, a friend of mine came to me for advice. He had a plethora of running backs and he wanted to trade one of them for a wide receiver. Very, very early on in the season he was offered Carolina's Steve Smith for one of his running backs. I told him he should hold out for better. He did so and was able to snag a better wide out: Tampa Bay's Mike Williams.

Hey, you win some, you lose some.

Well here are a list of facts I firmly believe in so I can say "I told you so" at the end of the year

- CHRIS JOHNSON WILL BE BAD. AGAIN.

Many people have Chris Johnson as their 4th best running back (behind some combination of Ray Rice, Arian Foster, and LeSean McCoy). As one friend said to me, "Would it surprise you if Chris Johnson ran for 1600 yards this season?" to which I replied, "no". He retorted, "Well then, how can you justify you ranking Chris Johnson so low?" I have CJ0K (as Christopher Harris joked) as my 20th ranked running back. The reason for this is because I think he will barely crack the top 20 of running backs this year. Many people are giving Johnson a mulligan for his 2011 season. I am not.

Last year, Chris Johnson was the 16th ranked running back. And he played all 16 games. I could buy that his hold out hurt him for some of his season and since he is fully in camp this year, he'll return to his greatness.  I don't buy it. During the latter half of the Titans schedule they faced many bad rushing defensive teams and most of them gave Johnson trouble (teams included two matches against Indy, Tampa Bay, and Carolina). I could buy and even understand that his lack of conditioning hurt him in the beginning of the year but after 8+ games there is just no excuse.

Running backs generally have a short shelf life in the NFL and I just think Johnson is close to his end (as a huge Chris Johnson fan and as a man that touted him as the #1 overall pick last year it brings me no pleasure to say that). His game is mainly predicated on burst and when that goes, so does any semblance of fantasy (and real life) production. Add to that Tennessee still has a terrible offensive line and I think the days of CJ2K are over.

- THE SAINTS WILL BE BAD WITHOUT SEAN PAYTON.

Many people have the Saints winning the Superbowl. I don't even have them making the playoffs. In fact, I have them third in their division. Sean Payton missed one game last year because a player accidentally broke his leg during a game the week beforehand. That meant that this dominant Saints team would have had to find a way to win against the win-less (at the time), gunning-to-win-the-Andrew-Luck-sweepstakes St. Louis Rams. And on that day David defeated Goliath.

Sure that is just one game but that game speaks volumes to me. I know Drew Brees and the Saints have looked really good during this preseason but when was the last time how a team performed in the preseason equals how they performed during the regular season? Hell, the 0-16 Detroit Lions went 4-0 during that preseason.

Obviously, for fantasy purposes, Drew Brees and the Saints will not produce as well as they did last year during Brees' record breaking run, but I think without Payton as the signal caller this team is in big trouble. I wanted to not rank Brees within my top three quarterbacks (my initial rankings had Vick at #3 with Rodgers at #1 and Brady at #2) but with Vick's injury history, question marks surrounding both Manning brothers, a potential sophomore slump for Cam Newton, a Megatron-less Matthew Stafford (see: below), and Philip Rivers' atrocious 2011 campaign, I had to rank Brees as my #3 ranked quarterback. But I really did not want to.

I ended up with Tom Brady as my QB in both my leagues but I didn't get him or Aaron Rodgers I would have waited to get Phillip Rivers.

- MEGATRON (AND STAFFORD) WILL SUFFER FROM THE MADDEN CURSE.

I ranked Calvin Johnson as my #1 wide out but that's only because I couldn't think of any other wide out to put there. I would have put my man-crush Mike Wallace #1 if he didn't hold out or Roddy White if Julio Jones wasn't there. But even though I ranked him #1 I did not and would not touch him in any of my leagues. I am normally not THIS superstitious but after 12 straight years I would rather stay away and have the Madden Cover Player be good on another team than take on said player and have me suffer from the curse. 

But take the curse out of it and you still have a wide receiver who has had an up and down career with some injury risk. In 2009 he only started 14 games, only got 5 receiving touchdowns and did not crack 1,000 receiving yards. You also have the injury prone Matthew Stafford who really only has one season (last season) under his belt.

Nevertheless, I truly believe believe in the Madden Curse which means I truly believe Megatron will be bad or injury-riddled next season which in turn will lead to an ineffective (rather not *as* effective) Matthew Stafford (if he manages to stay healthy for another 16 games). Stafford's game last year was mainly predicated on throwing it up to Johnson and letting Megatron be the beast he is, fight off defenders, and come down with the ball. But no (or a bad) Calvin Johnson means the Detroit signal caller's statistics will suffer as well. 

- MICHAEL BUSH WILL HURT MATT FORTE'S FANTASY VALUE.

I understand (all too well as a Forte owner last year and as a Bears fan) that scoring touchdowns and short yardage situations are not part of Matt Forte's game. The guy just gets a crazy amount of yards from scrimmage year after year after year. That is why I loved the Marion Barber signing last year. The only game Barber had was converting those 4th and 1 and those red zone touchdowns. But with Barber gone and the Bears needing a hole to fill and new GM Phil Emory being awesome, the Bears signed former Raiders RB and Run DMC back up Michael Bush this offseason. Here's the thing, there are many great parts of Bush's game more than just getting short yardage. He can catch. He can run. And he's just overall really good at football. 

Michael Bush was the 11th ranked running back last year while only starting six games. The guy has legitimate starting running back talent and eventually I believe he will just take carries away from Forte. I don't mean get carries along with Forte but actually take away carries from Forte. As a Bears fan I am completely fine with that but as a fantasy owner (at least for Forte) I am not. In fact, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice has said that he wants two 1,000 yard rushers in 2012. A feat rarely and not easily accomplished. Granted, it is possible for Forte to be a top 7 running back with both Forte and Bush getting over 1,000 rushing yards but I just don't see that happening. Especially not with the addition of Brandon Marshall and an improved Bears passing game.

- INJURY PRONE RUNNING BACKS I JUST DON'T LIKE:
- Darren McFadden (OAK)
- Ryan Matthews (SD)
- Frank Gore (SF)

- STARTING RUNNING BACKS I JUST THINK ARE BAD:
(NOTE: By "bad" I just mean I really do not want to own them on my team)
- Michael Turner (ATL)
- Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
- Beanie Wells (ARI)
- Cedric Benson (GB)
- Shonn Greene (NYJ)
- Willis McGahee (DEN)
- Isaac Redman / Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
- Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
NOTE: The guy's an amazing talent but he has still held out this late into the off season and with Chris Johnson's hold out last year I just don't feel good owning MJD

SIDENOTE: Yeah, I really am not pleased with the running back crop this year. Like, I REALLY don't like or trust most of the NFL's starters

- "TOP TIERED" WIDE OUTS I DON'T TRUST THIS YEAR:
- Andre Johnson (HOU)
- Victor Cruz (NYG)
- Steve Smith (CAR)
- Vincent Jackson (TB)
- Dez Bryant/Miles Austin (DAL)

-BACK UP RUNNING BACKS I DON'T LIKE:

- David Wilson (NYG)

I think Wilson could be solid and effective but I don't think he is anything special and while I don't like Bradshaw I still think Bradshaw is going to get significant carries and two "eh" running backs don't do it for me

- Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL)

Analogous to Wilson, while I do not like Michael Turner I think he will play in every game, he just won't be effective. Rodgers has become a trendy sleeper because there is a lot of hate surrounding Michael Turner but I think Turner will get carries but just will not do much with them which does not bode well for Rodgers. It's hard to get fantasy points when you're not on the field.

- Ronnie Brown (SD)

I believe Brown will start a significant amounts of games because of Ryan Matthews' injury history but I just don't think he will do much with those starts

- Brandon Jacobs (SF)

see: Brown, Ronnie. I believe Kendall Hunter is the Gore back up you want

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