Why It (Sort Of) Makes Sense To Trade Away Brandon Marshall

According to the Chicago Tribune, the Chicago Bears are actively shopping wide receiver Brandon Marshall. As a lifelong Chicago Bears fan, I’m very upset by this news. Brandon Marshall is arguably the greatest receiver in the franchise’s history (from both the numbers he put up in his limited time here and from a pure skills standpoint, I dare you to name someone better) and when healthy, he’s one of the best receivers in the game. Plus, it’s just fun to scream MAHHHHHH-SHHHHHHAAAAALLLL every time he does something excellent. But from the Bears perspective and a GM perspective, it makes sense why they’d want to trade him.

The big reason to trade away Brandon Marshall is that he’s decently expensive. It’s almost the exact same reason the Philadelphia Eagles traded away LeSean McCoy. Marshall is currently under contract for the next three years, and he earns an average of $10 million a year. That makes him (on a yearly average) the 9^th most expensive wide out in the game. That’s extremely fair and market price considering Marshall’s skill set and considering his production during his tenure in Chicago, but also not exactly cheap either. According to OverTheCap.com, Brandon Marshall is set to cost a little over $9.5 million against the cap in 2015, a little under ten million dollars in 2016, and about $10.375 million dollars in 2017. While that’s not a ginormous, Jay Cutler-in-2014 chunk of change, it is still a decent amount of money that will come off of the books. And speaking of Jay Cutler, his contract nose dives over the next few years as his contract was extremely frontloaded. The Bears will save another two million from this year compared to last just the way Cutler’s contract is structured. I bring this up because the Bears will have a guaranteed $11.5 million freed up in 2015 based upon two players alone. That may not be enough to go out and get Ndamukong Suh, but it should be enough to get stud offensive lineman Mike Iupati or Orlando Franklin or a stud defender like CB Byron Maxwell, DB Devin McCourty, or DT Nick Fairley. I would love for the Bears to get help on their back seven on defense as they have had historically bad defenses the past two years, and trading away Marshall will help improve the defense. I contend the Bears have a few good pieces on defense currently on their roster, and a stud free agent acquisition and their 7^th overall pick in conjunction with the coaching of the excellent John Fox could easily be enough to bring the Bears to a respectable place on defense and therefore an above average team.

7 Days Later: An Honest Discussion About The Chicago Bears Firings and Jay Cutler

Irwin Weiner, a frequent Cover 3 contributor, and myself are huge Chicago Bears fans. With what has happened to this organization over the recent days and weeks, we felt we needed to discuss the topic. However, there are so many talking points and things to discuss, we couldn't just write one blog post or have just one podcast. Instead, we needed to have lengthy email chains over the course of several days. This is our discussion about everything from former head coach Marc Trestman and former GM Phil Emery to our thoughts on Jay Cutler and his contract.

IRWIN: Today on Monday December 29th, 2014 the Chicago Bears were one of a few teams to take part in the day known as "Black Monday" in the NFL.  The day after the regular season ends is known as "Black Monday" because that's the day that many teams will fire their coach after disappointing seasons.

This was not a surprise to you or me.  We both have discussed this for weeks and knew changes were coming at Halas Hall.  It was about time that George McCaskey, current Chairman of the Chicago Bears made a change.  We were hoping for smaller changes to come weeks ago in the likes of coordinator changes such as firing Mel Tucker, Aaron Kromer, and Joe Decamillis.  That never came, but today we got which was one of the worse kept secrets in Chicago, Marc Trestman was fired.  Everyone knew he was fired weeks.  This was reported weeks ago by multiple news outlets, and the way the team has been playing it was about time.  You just wonder if they ever thought about doing it before the season ended?

The one thing we didn't know was who else was going to be fired today.  It turned out General Manager Phil Emery (the man who hired Marc Trestman) was also shown the door, and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer.  There is a lot on these three men and there performance in their respected time as a Chicago Bear.

Before we dive into each specific firing what do you think about the Chicago Bears cleaning house today and saying their tandem wasn't working? 

What Should The Bears Do With Jay Cutler?

The short answer: Truthfully? I have no idea.

And frankly neither do you, because I don't think there is a correct answer to this question. Many Bears fans would disagree, and after back up Josh McCown defeated the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Monday Night in early November, a good majority of Bears fans decided they'd prefer to let Jay Cutler walk and stick with McCown.

After the 2013 NFL season concluded, that suggestion, which seemed extremely short sighted in the middle of the season, isn't a half bad suggestion at the end of the season. McCown started 5 games for the Bears and played in another 3. In that span he completed 66.5% of his passes, and he threw 13 TDs versus only one interception. He actually ended with THE BEST QBR out of every quarterback (including Peyton Manning) in 2013 with an 85.1 (out of 100).

However, during that span, he faced some pretty horrific defenses which included the Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, and Minnesota Vikings. He struggled against better defenses such as the St. Louis Rams and Baltimore Ravens.

I think the bigger question isn't whether Josh McCown will replace Jay Cutler if the Bears refuse to go after Cutler / don't sign him, but which quarterback will. It's no guarantee that McCown will even resign with the Bears. Not only are there reports that McCown will retire, but he is also now a free agent. Last year McCown made $865,000. Chances are good that he'll be able to get a few more sheckles than that from any other team in the league. If the Bears choose to make McCown their starter, even for the short term, they will still have to pay him like a starter.

Let's say that the Bears think Cutler is worth less than what he's asking for and McCown doesn't end up playing for the Bears- something that could easily happen. Who would then play quarterback for the Bears?

With Or Without You: How The Bears Can Survive A Jay Cutler Injury

In 2011, through eleven games, the Chicago Bears were 7-3. They were on a roll and their schedule through the next 6 games was, for the most part, a cake walk. They were on pace to easily get the #5 seed in the NFC come playoff time. Then the injury bug struck them. They lost starting running back Matt Forte which was a bummer but could have been dealt with because the Bears had Marion Barber and Kahlil Bell. But then the killer injury happened- Jay Cutler broke his thumb during a 31-20 win over the Chargers. The cake schedule turned out to be a huge disaster as the Bears lost their next five games and finished the season 8-8.

In 2012, through ten games, the Chicago Bears are 7-2. They are on a roll, but their cake walk schedule is behind them. They face a really, really good San Francisco 49ers team this Monday Night and they still have the Packers left on their schedule (although it will be in Soldier Field) and three more divisional games. Jay Cutler is now injured again (I could write a whole other post about the play which gave Cutler his concussion  and the low fine that came from it, but I digress) but this will NOT be a disaster rest of the season like the Bears' 2011 season was.

Let me give you a player comparison:

PLAYER A: 60.1 completion percentage, 1.34 TD/INT, 4.6 TD%, 3.5 INT%, 7.2 YPA, 84.1 QB Rating

PLAYER B: 60.8 completion percentage, 1.45 TD/INT, 3.4 TD%, 2.3 INT%, 6.7 YPA, 82.8 QB Rating

You can probably already guess who these players are. Player A is Jay Cutler and Player B is Jason Campbell. Those are the career numbers of these two men. If you look at those numbers they are extremely similar. Jay Cutler can get more yards per play and is much more likely to throw a touchdown, but Campbell makes up for his ability to not throw a touchdown by turning the ball over less. There is no doubt that Jay Cutler is a better quarterback than Jason Campbell, but Jason Campbell is a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. I think, right now, he is a better quarterback than Mark Sanchez, Ryan Tannenhill, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Cassel, and Kevin Kolb.

I did a post back in May grading NFL's best off season moves and I gave the Campbell signing an A-. The only reason I didn't like it more was because of the money the Bears gave him. But that being said, that signing was great and every GM in the league (and myself) would have made that deal.

I thought the Bears were going to be fine in 2011 when Cutler went down because I liked the then Bears back up Caleb Hanie. When Cutler got injured during the 2010 NFC Championship game, Hanie came in and looked really good against a tough Packers team. However, that was the only thing I (and most other people) had to judge Hanie on. Boy was I wrong. Hanie was fucking atrocious and I can't believe he is not out of the league after the poor performances he showed while as a Bears starter. Jason Campbell is different. He was a starter for five and a half years and we have a really good sample size to judge what Campbell is. He is certainly no 1999 Kurt Warner but he is a solid NFL player and could legitimately lead this Bears squad for the rest of the year if he needed to.

Luckily, it looks like the Jay Cutler injury will only be a one week injury and even if Cutler was healthy, the Chicago Bears will probably lose to the 49ers in San Fran. However, Jason Campbell is a really good back up quarterback and people need to stop giving him crap.
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