This post was written by guest writer Daniel Bennett
Now that the green haze of St. Patrick’s Day has ended, the time of year where work productivity ceases and is replaced by bracket filling has begun. Mr. Kaplan has so graciously asked me to give some of my insights into this year’s March Madness bracket. This part will be general overview of the field of 68 with some pointers on filling out your bracket and will be followed by a second part looking at each region a little more closely.
GENERAL OVERVIEW
THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT WINNER THIS YEAR
Now that the green haze of St. Patrick’s Day has ended, the time of year where work productivity ceases and is replaced by bracket filling has begun. Mr. Kaplan has so graciously asked me to give some of my insights into this year’s March Madness bracket. This part will be general overview of the field of 68 with some pointers on filling out your bracket and will be followed by a second part looking at each region a little more closely.
GENERAL OVERVIEW
THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT WINNER THIS YEAR
Some years of the tournament, the
winner is pretty much known before the tournament even begins. A team
like Memphis, Duke or Kentucky has a season in which they are so good that they are undoubtedly going
to end with a title. This is not one of those years. The biggest
reason for this is because of how heavy good the top four lines in
each bracket are. There are a lot 2 seeds, 3 seeds and even some 4
seeds that were in the discussion for a one seed until the very end,
and even the number one overall team (Louisville), wasn’t a clear
decision. Needless to say, whoever wins the tournament this year
truly deserves it because they will have a rough road ahead of them.
THIS IS NOT THE YEAR FOR
CINDERELLA
This point goes along with my first
point…. Cinderella teams will not play a factor in this tournament.
There are some years where there is a weak region and by defeating a
one seed a Cinderella team can waltz to the Final Four. Since there
really isn’t a region that doesn’t have at least three legitimate
teams, Cinderella will not be dancing for long in this tournament.
EVEN THOUGH ALL THE REGIONS ARE
GOOD, THE WEST IS CERTAINLY THE WEAKEST
Gonzaga is to college basketball
what Boise State is to college football and both are a huge pain in
my ass. Gonzaga earned a number one spot in the west by going 16-0
in the West Coast Conference, a conference that I highly doubt any of
the readers could name another school that belongs. While it is
difficult to go 16-0 in any conference, they are certainly the
weakest number one in that they have had the easiest schedule and
have only done marginally better than the other number ones. This
being said, I believe they will be the first to fall. Ohio State is
a legitimate number two in this region, tying for second in the Big
10, which ESPN had rated the toughest basketball conference this
season. The third seed is New Mexico, which is essentially just
another Gonzaga. Kansas State is a decent four, and Notre Dame could
surprise teams at 7, but all in all, this is the worst region top to
bottom.
POINTERS IN FILLING OUT YOUR BRACKET
REMEMBER THE RULE OF 14
Since seeding for the tournament began in 1979, there have only been 5 years where the seeds in the Final Four have added to a number higher than 14. What’s more, is that each of those five years where the total seeds did go above 14, they also went above 20. So, what does this mean? This mean that the best teams are seeded where they are for a reason, and that the five years that it did go above 14 was due to a school who had a lucky win and a favorable run. Since, as I stated before, this is not a year for Cinderella Teams, when filling out your bracket it would be very wise to follow the Rule of 14.
Since seeding for the tournament began in 1979, there have only been 5 years where the seeds in the Final Four have added to a number higher than 14. What’s more, is that each of those five years where the total seeds did go above 14, they also went above 20. So, what does this mean? This mean that the best teams are seeded where they are for a reason, and that the five years that it did go above 14 was due to a school who had a lucky win and a favorable run. Since, as I stated before, this is not a year for Cinderella Teams, when filling out your bracket it would be very wise to follow the Rule of 14.
REGULAR SEASON RECORDS DON’T
MEAN EVERYTHING
I’m not going to beat a dead horse, but Gonzaga finished the season 31-2, the best overall record in the country, and they are also the first 1 seed I have losing in my bracket. They are a good team, but that record is misleading because of WHO they have played. Look to some second and third place teams in power conferences to make a run.
I’m not going to beat a dead horse, but Gonzaga finished the season 31-2, the best overall record in the country, and they are also the first 1 seed I have losing in my bracket. They are a good team, but that record is misleading because of WHO they have played. Look to some second and third place teams in power conferences to make a run.
LOOK FOR TEAMS THAT ARE ON A HOT
STREAK AND AVOID THOSE THAT HAVE A FIZZLED.
How a team ends a season is far
more important than how they start one. Momentum carries game to
game in a fast paced sports such as this, look for teams that had
strong finishes to their season for easy bracket picks.
AND FINALLY….. UPSETS
While I don’t believe there will be a Cinderella team this year, I do believe there will be some upsets. In the history of the tournament, 9 seeds actually have a winning record over 8 seeds and the 12-5 upset is more frequent than most of the others…. I would expect some of these trends to continue this year.
While I don’t believe there will be a Cinderella team this year, I do believe there will be some upsets. In the history of the tournament, 9 seeds actually have a winning record over 8 seeds and the 12-5 upset is more frequent than most of the others…. I would expect some of these trends to continue this year.
